Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
700 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2002

...AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ONE OR TWO WEAK ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF DFW/DAL THIS
EVENING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SHORTLY. NOT EXPECTING ANY
MORE ACTIVITY UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS
LIFTING AIR ATOP THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY POSITIONED WELL SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD LOSE VFR CIGS BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS WE LOSE
MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...AND THE ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW
BEGINS INCREASING. LATE TONIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO
LOW MVFR...AND OCCASIONALLY TO IFR...IN HEAVY RA/TSRA. SLOW CLEARING
TO VFR TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES.

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...PUBLIC DISCUSSION...340 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2002
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ELEVATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ENHANCE THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
(LLJ).  THE AIR MASS ABOVE THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE (CAPES
AROUND 3000 JOULES/KG WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR A FEW HAIL STORMS.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...AS PER
HPC GUIDANCE.  WE WILL GO CONSIDERABLY ABOVE MOS POPS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS.

RAIN WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA...WITH THE FRONT...FRIDAY...WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE LATE WEEKEND COOL FRONT.  TEMPS IN
THE EXTENDED HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A BIT...AS HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE
GRIDDED DATA.

FTW...NONE.

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TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT...LOCATED ALONG A LAMPASAS...WACO...CANTON LINE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY 6 PM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THE AIRMASS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION.  THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE FROM GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LATER TONIGHT...WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
TRANSPORTED OVER THE COOL SURFACE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
NUMEROUS AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION AND MOVE NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BECOME SEVERE...WITH
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER THE MAIN THREAT.  THERE WILL ALSO BE
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
512 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1008 PM    5 NW MORGAN               TX   .75 INCH HAIL
05/09/02   BOSQUE                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.