Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 12, 2002Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 12, 2002, 3:57 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2002, 3:57 PM MST (22:57 UTC)
Expired: Jul 12, 2002, 4:30 PM MST
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 83 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -204 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2295 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 143 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

318 
WUUS55 KFGZ 122257
SVRFGZ
AZC025-122330-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
357 PM MST FRI JUL 12 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 430 PM MST

* AT 357 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...OR ABOUT 6
  MILES WEST OF CAMP VERDE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE TO...
RURAL EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY AT 410 PM MST

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3445 11207 3440 11195 3457 11190 3458 11203

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 12, 2:45 PM MST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 2:45 PM MST, 1 hour 12 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST FRI JUL 12 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
EXPECT MUCH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE RIM. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY SUNDAY...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WELL UNDER WAY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEVERAL LARGE CELLS BLOWING UP IN THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WEST
OF FLAGSTAFF. NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MUCH QUIETER AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER WESTWARD. MOISTURE SEEP CONTINUES IN THE YUMA
AREA...AND THIS MAY TURN INTO A FULL-BLOWN SURGE SOMETIME THIS
WEEKEND. ALSO SEEMS TO BE LOTS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH COULD ALSO INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. RELATIVELY QUIET
PATTERN WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO
RAMP UP FOR THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER NOTE...HGHT FALLS DUE TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY WEAKEN THE
HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR NOT ONLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
MID LEVEL COOLING WILL ALSO ENHANCE INSTABILITY. SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE
WEEK NEXT WEEK IN MOST ZONES. PETERSON.

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON SAT   SUN     MON        TON SAT   SUN     MON
FLAGSTAFF        055/086 056/082 057/079      020 030 020 040 040 050
WINSLOW          067/096 068/094 068/091      000 000 020 030 020 030
PRESCOTT         064/093 065/090 066/087      030 030 030 040 040 050
PAGE             078/100 079/098 078/095      000 000 000 020 020 020
WINDOW ROCK      050/086 051/083 052/080      020 020 020 030 020 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 056/092 057/089 058/086      000 000 000 020 020 020
COTTONWOOD       072/104 073/101 074/098      020 020 020 030 030 040
GRAND CANYON     054/088 055/084 056/081      000 000 020 030 030 040
GREER            051/082 052/078 053/075      020 030 020 040 040 050
HEBER            056/091 057/087 058/084      020 030 020 040 040 050
JACOB LAKE       055/084 056/080 057/077      000 000 020 030 030 040
NAVAJO N.M.      054/086 055/083 056/080      000 000 000 020 020 030
PAYSON           065/098 066/095 067/092      030 030 030 040 040 050
SEDONA           070/102 071/099 072/096      020 030 020 040 040 040
SELIGMAN         057/096 058/093 059/090      030 030 030 040 040 050
SHOW LOW         063/092 064/088 065/085      020 000 020 030 020 030
ST. JOHNS        062/090 063/088 063/085      020 000 020 030 020 030
WUPATKI N.M.     070/098 071/096 071/093      020 000 020 020 030 030

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 12, 10:00 AM MST, 5 hours 57 minutes before

AZZ004>018-037>040-121930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST FRI JUL 12 2002

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...

DRIER AIR FROM THE COLORADO PLATEAU HAS MOVED WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ROUGHLY
FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD TODAY...WHERE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH OF THE RIM...THE AIRMASS IS MUCH
MORE MOIST. EXPECTED MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY OVER YAVAPAI
COUNTY...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN
COCONINO COUNTY. THESE AREAS WILL SEE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN RIM. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND
INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OVER YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA
COUNTIES.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...
SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
CHEDISKI-RODEO BURN AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY NEAR THIS
FIRE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE INDIAN FIRE
BURN AREA NEAR PRESCOTT WILL BE MORE LIKELY.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 1:51 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	24 min
Jul 12, 2:24 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	21 min
Jul 12, 2:34 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	26 min
Jul 12, 3:14 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Gila	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.