Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 12, 2002, 1:51 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 12, 2002, 1:51 PM MST (20:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 12, 2002, 2:15 PM MST
- In force
- 24 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Yavapai County, AZ
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 83 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -204 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2295 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 143 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
988 WUUS55 KFGZ 122051 SVRFGZ AZC025-122115- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 150 PM MST FRI JUL 12 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 215 PM MST * AT 149 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER WEST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...ABOUT 40 MILES WEST OF PRESCOTT OR 15 MILES NORTH OF BAGDAD... MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RURAL WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY THROUGH 215 PM MST THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH YOU SHOULD PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3474 11332 3449 11331 3473 11296 3485 11313
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 12, 9:55 AM MST, 3 hours 56 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 9:55 AM MST, 3 hours 56 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST FRI JUL 12 2002
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. EXPECT MUCH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE RIM. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY SUNDAY...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
NEXT WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES A VERY TOUGH CALL LATELY BOTH AT NIGHT
AND DAY DUE TO VARYING CLOUD COVER. FLG TEMPERATURE AT 9 AM MST
ALREADY 83...WELL ABOVE THE PACE SET OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TODAY AND SATURDAY...90 DEGREES
EACH DAY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ASIDE FROM THIS...SYNOPTIC PATTERN
HAS BROUGHT DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WITH
QUITE MOIST AIR STILL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH
BROUGHT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO THE AREA HAS MOVED WEST...WITH
DRYING AND SUBSIDENT AIR BEHIND IT. 12Z SOUNDING AT FLG ALREADY NOT
VALID AS THE MID LEVELS HAVE BECOME CAPPED AND DRIER. CONVECTION IN
YAVAPAI COUNTY AND OTHER AREAS SOUTH OF THE RIM SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
PROLIFIC TODAY. ZONES NEED SOME TOUCH UP WORK WITH POPS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. PETERSON.
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON SAT SUN TDY TON SAT SUN
FLAGSTAFF 087/054 087/053 083/052 030 020 030 020 050 030
WINSLOW 098/067 098/067 096/066 020 020 030 020 050 030
PRESCOTT 094/062 094/064 090/063 040 020 030 020 040 020
PAGE 103/077 102/076 099/075 000 010 020 010 030 020
WINDOW ROCK 089/049 087/050 086/049 020 020 020 010 050 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 095/055 093/056 092/055 000 020 020 010 040 020
COTTONWOOD 105/070 105/072 101/071 030 020 020 020 030 020
GRAND CANYON 089/053 089/052 085/051 020 020 020 020 040 020
GREER 083/050 083/049 079/048 040 030 040 030 060 040
HEBER 092/055 092/054 088/053 040 030 040 030 050 040
JACOB LAKE 085/054 085/053 081/052 000 020 020 020 040 020
NAVAJO N.M. 089/053 087/054 086/053 020 020 020 010 040 020
PAYSON 099/063 099/065 095/064 040 020 030 020 040 020
SEDONA 103/068 103/070 099/069 030 020 020 020 030 020
SELIGMAN 097/055 097/057 093/056 030 010 020 010 030 010
SHOW LOW 093/062 093/061 089/060 030 020 030 020 050 030
ST. JOHNS 092/062 092/062 090/061 030 030 040 030 060 040
WUPATKI N.M. 100/070 100/070 098/069 000 020 030 020 060 030In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 12, 9:35 AM MST, 4 hours 16 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-121930- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 935 AM MST FRI JUL 12 2002 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM... DRIER AIR FROM THE COLORADO PLATEAU HAS MOVED WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ROUGHLY FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD TODAY...WHERE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH OF THE RIM...THE AIRMASS IS MUCH MORE MOIST. EXPECTED MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTY. THESE AREAS WILL SEE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN RIM. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OVER YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK... SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHEDISKI-RODEO BURN AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY NEAR THIS FIRE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE INDIAN FIRE BURN AREA NEAR PRESCOTT WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
Special weather statement, Jul 12, 10:00 AM MST, 3 hours 51 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-121930- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST FRI JUL 12 2002 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM... DRIER AIR FROM THE COLORADO PLATEAU HAS MOVED WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ROUGHLY FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD TODAY...WHERE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH OF THE RIM...THE AIRMASS IS MUCH MORE MOIST. EXPECTED MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTY. THESE AREAS WILL SEE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN RIM. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OVER YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK... SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHEDISKI-RODEO BURN AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY NEAR THIS FIRE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE INDIAN FIRE BURN AREA NEAR PRESCOTT WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2:24 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 21 min |
| Jul 12, 2:34 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 26 min |
| Jul 12, 3:14 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila | 31 min |
| Jul 12, 3:57 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 33 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.