Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
210 PM MST SUN JUL 14 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AREA
ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE
DAILY PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE COMING WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA...AS IT DOES A
PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE ON
MONDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE A
LITTLE DRIER MONDAY...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THE WEEK...INCREASES OF MOISTURE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH BY
MID-WEEK.

.EXTENDED...THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT AS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
APPROACHES...THAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE EXTENDED. NOW TO PREDICT THE TIMING OF
THIS IS QUESTIONABLE AND THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THAT COULD GET PULLED NORTHWARD ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED FOR NOW.
TC
.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON MON   TUE     WED        TON MON   TUE     WED
FLAGSTAFF        058/086 057/084 054/084      030 030 020 030 020 040
WINSLOW          068/097 067/095 066/095      030 020 000 020 000 030
PRESCOTT         065/093 065/092 066/092      020 030 020 030 020 040
PAGE             079/102 077/099 077/099      010 000 000 020 000 030
WINDOW ROCK      052/086 053/084 053/085      030 030 020 030 020 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 058/097 059/095 059/095      020 020 010 020 020 040
COTTONWOOD       070/103 070/101 071/101      020 020 020 020 020 030
GRAND CANYON     055/091 054/089 052/089      030 020 010 030 020 040
GREER            052/080 051/078 049/078      040 030 020 040 020 040
HEBER            057/089 056/087 053/087      040 030 020 030 020 040
JACOB LAKE       058/084 057/082 054/082      030 020 010 030 020 040
NAVAJO N.M.      064/091 065/089 065/089      030 020 010 020 020 030
PAYSON           066/093 066/092 065/092      020 020 020 030 020 040
SEDONA           070/100 070/100 069/099      020 020 020 020 020 040
SELIGMAN         060/096 060/095 061/095      020 020 010 020 010 030
SHOW LOW         061/092 060/090 057/090      040 030 020 030 020 040
ST. JOHNS        063/093 062/091 061/091      030 030 020 030 020 040
WUPATKI N.M.     076/100 075/098 074/098      030 020 010 020 020 030

AZZ004>018-037>040-141930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SUN JUL 14 2002

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY FROM
THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...

DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST PLATEAUS WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOP
TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWARD INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU AS MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS MOVES NORTHWARD UP
THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN. THESE AREAS WILL SEE ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER...SMALL HAIL AND RAIN RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR.
STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY WILL BE
LOW...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...
SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
CHEDISKI-RODEO BURN AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY NEAR THIS
FIRE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE INDIAN FIRE
BURN AREA NEAR PRESCOTT WILL BE MORE LIKELY.