Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1045 AM MST SUN JUL 14 2002

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ON NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE DAILY PATTERN
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
COMING WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

.DISCUSSION...TO FEATURES ON WV A SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER WITH A 2ND MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER UP INTO
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. CAPE AND MOISTURE VALUES ARE ABOUT
THE SAME TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH LOWEST VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST DUE
TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THAT AREA. TODAY THE FLOW IS MORE
NORTHWEST IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING
MORE IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OFF THE RIM. GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THIS AREA AND GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW...ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER IN THE DRIER AIR WITH WEAK LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW...AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER MAY LEAD TO A FEW MICRO BURST
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OUT IN THAT AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT FLAGSTAFF
SOUNDING...HIGH TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED 2 TO 3 DEGREES AT A
FEW LOCATIONS. TC
.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   MON     TUE        TDY TON   MON   TUE
FLAGSTAFF        088/056 083/055 082/054      030 020 040 030 040
WINSLOW          098/067 097/066 095/065      020 020 020 020 030
PRESCOTT         095/067 094/067 092/066      040 030 040 030 040
PAGE             103/076 102/076 101/075      020 000 000 000 020
WINDOW ROCK      087/052 086/052 084/051      030 020 030 020 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 099/058 097/058 096/057      020 000 000 000 020
COTTONWOOD       106/075 105/075 103/074      030 020 030 020 030
GRAND CANYON     095/055 085/054 084/053      020 020 030 020 030
GREER            081/052 079/051 078/050      040 030 040 030 040
HEBER            090/057 088/056 087/055      030 020 040 030 040
JACOB LAKE       083/056 081/055 080/054      020 020 030 020 030
NAVAJO N.M.      093/064 092/064 090/065      020 020 020 020 030
PAYSON           095/068 094/068 094/067      040 030 040 030 040
SEDONA           104/073 103/073 101/072      030 020 030 020 030
SELIGMAN         100/060 097/060 095/059      040 020 040 030 040
SHOW LOW         091/064 089/063 088/062      030 020 030 020 030
ST. JOHNS        094/062 091/061 089/060      030 020 030 020 030
WUPATKI N.M.     102/070 099/069 097/068      020 020 020 020 030

AZZ004>018-037>040-141930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SUN JUL 14 2002

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY FROM
THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...

DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST PLATEAUS WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOP
TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWARD INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU AS MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS MOVES NORTHWARD UP
THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN. THESE AREAS WILL SEE ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER...SMALL HAIL AND RAIN RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR.
STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY WILL BE
LOW...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...
SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
CHEDISKI-RODEO BURN AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY NEAR THIS
FIRE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE INDIAN FIRE
BURN AREA NEAR PRESCOTT WILL BE MORE LIKELY.