Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002
Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 17, 2002, 11:06 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 114 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 17, 2002, 11:06 PM MST (06:06 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 18, 2002, 1:00 AM MST
- In force
- 114 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Gila County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 225 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -50 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2523 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 12 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 20 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS55 KFGZ 180606 FFWFGZ AZC007-180800- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1103 PM MST WED JUL 17 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING CARRIZO CREEK AND THE TOWN OF CARRIZO * UNTIL 100 AM MST * AT 1055 PM MST...RUNNOFF FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES. STREAM GAUGE DATA INDICATED THAT A RAPID RISE IN CARRIZO CREEK AT THE TOWN OF CARRIZO IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT HOUR. FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN CARRIZO CREEK TOWARD THE TOWN OF CARRIZO. THE FLOOD CREST IS EXPECTED TO REACH CARRIZO BY MIDNIGHT. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3394 11031 3395 11020 3400 11023 3401 11031
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 17, 9:30 PM MST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 17, 9:30 PM MST, 1 hour 36 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST WED JUL 17 2002
.SYNOPSIS...THE AIR MASS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE LCR VALLEY AND EASTERN RIM WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO LOWER POPS
ELSEWHERE. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF
MONSOON CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JOHNDROW
.FGZ...NONE
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON THU FRI SAT TON THU FRI SAT
FLAGSTAFF 056/075 053/077 052/077 030 050 030 040 030 040
WINSLOW 065/087 064/088 063/088 040 030 020 030 020 030
PRESCOTT 062/085 061/086 060/086 020 040 030 030 020 020
PAGE 071/093 071/093 070/093 020 030 020 030 020 020
WINDOW ROCK 052/080 052/080 054/080 020 050 030 050 040 050
CANYON DE CHELLY 058/086 058/086 060/086 020 040 020 040 030 040
COTTONWOOD 070/096 069/097 068/097 020 030 020 020 020 020
GRAND CANYON 055/077 052/079 051/079 020 040 020 030 020 030
GREER 052/071 049/073 048/073 020 080 050 070 050 070
HEBER 057/080 054/082 053/082 040 070 040 060 040 060
JACOB LAKE 056/073 053/075 052/075 020 040 020 030 020 030
NAVAJO N.M. 056/080 056/080 058/080 020 040 020 040 030 040
PAYSON 063/090 062/091 061/091 020 020 030 030 020 020
SEDONA 068/094 067/095 066/095 020 030 020 020 020 020
SELIGMAN 055/088 054/089 053/089 020 030 020 020 010 010
SHOW LOW 064/081 061/083 060/083 020 050 030 040 030 040
ST. JOHNS 060/081 059/082 058/082 020 040 030 040 030 040
WUPATKI N.M. 068/089 067/090 066/090 020 030 020 030 020 030The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 5:28 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila | 32 min |
| Jul 17, 6:55 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 2 hr |
| Jul 17, 6:58 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 3 hr |
| Jul 17, 8:58 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | 2 hr |
| Jul 17, 9:00 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | 60 min |
| Jul 17, 11:03 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila | 57 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.