Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 17, 2002Gila County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 17, 2002, 11:06 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 114 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 17, 2002, 11:06 PM MST (06:06 UTC)
Expired
Jul 18, 2002, 1:00 AM MST
In force
114 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Gila County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2002-07-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 225 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2002-07-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 12 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
225 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-50 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2523 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
20 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 180606
FFWFGZ
AZC007-180800-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1103 PM MST WED JUL 17 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
  INCLUDING CARRIZO CREEK AND THE TOWN OF CARRIZO

* UNTIL 100 AM MST

* AT 1055 PM MST...RUNNOFF FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES.  
  STREAM GAUGE DATA INDICATED THAT A RAPID RISE IN CARRIZO CREEK 
  AT THE TOWN OF CARRIZO IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT HOUR.   

FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN CARRIZO CREEK TOWARD THE TOWN OF CARRIZO.
THE FLOOD CREST IS EXPECTED TO REACH CARRIZO BY MIDNIGHT. MOVE TO HIGHER 
GROUND IMMEDIATELY

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3394 11031 3395 11020 3400 11023 3401 11031

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 17, 9:30 PM MST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 17, 9:30 PM MST, 1 hour 36 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST WED JUL 17 2002

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIR MASS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME.  A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE LCR VALLEY AND EASTERN RIM WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WILL UPDATE ZFP TO LOWER POPS
ELSEWHERE.  REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF
MONSOON CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JOHNDROW

.FGZ...NONE

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON THU   FRI     SAT        TON THU   FRI     SAT
FLAGSTAFF        056/075 053/077 052/077      030 050 030 040 030 040
WINSLOW          065/087 064/088 063/088      040 030 020 030 020 030
PRESCOTT         062/085 061/086 060/086      020 040 030 030 020 020
PAGE             071/093 071/093 070/093      020 030 020 030 020 020
WINDOW ROCK      052/080 052/080 054/080      020 050 030 050 040 050
CANYON DE CHELLY 058/086 058/086 060/086      020 040 020 040 030 040
COTTONWOOD       070/096 069/097 068/097      020 030 020 020 020 020
GRAND CANYON     055/077 052/079 051/079      020 040 020 030 020 030
GREER            052/071 049/073 048/073      020 080 050 070 050 070
HEBER            057/080 054/082 053/082      040 070 040 060 040 060
JACOB LAKE       056/073 053/075 052/075      020 040 020 030 020 030
NAVAJO N.M.      056/080 056/080 058/080      020 040 020 040 030 040
PAYSON           063/090 062/091 061/091      020 020 030 030 020 020
SEDONA           068/094 067/095 066/095      020 030 020 020 020 020
SELIGMAN         055/088 054/089 053/089      020 030 020 020 010 010
SHOW LOW         064/081 061/083 060/083      020 050 030 040 030 040
ST. JOHNS        060/081 059/082 058/082      020 040 030 040 030 040
WUPATKI N.M.     068/089 067/090 066/090      020 030 020 030 020 030

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 17, 5:28 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZGila32 min
Jul 17, 6:55 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZNavajo2 hr
Jul 17, 6:58 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZNavajo3 hr
Jul 17, 8:58 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZGila, Navajo2 hr
Jul 17, 9:00 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZGila, Navajo60 min
Jul 17, 11:03 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZGila57 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.