Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Issued

Aug 31, 2002, 7:21 AM CDT (12:21 UTC)

Expired

Aug 31, 2002, 8:00 AM CDT

In force

39 min

Issued by

NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area

Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Beltrami County, MN

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 183 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

169 
WUUS53 KFGF 311221
SVRFAR
MNC007-311300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
721 AM CDT SAT AUG 31 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT.

* AT 717 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF WILTON...OR ABOUT 9 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF BEMIDJI...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  PUPOSKY AT 740 AM AND
  NEBISH AT 755 AM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4766 9512 4745 9500 4777 9448 4794 9474


55

NNNN

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 31, 2:30 AM CDT, 4 hours 51 minutes earlier.

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
230 AM CDT SAT AUG 31 2002

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS PCPN. FIRST ROUND OCCURRING
ATTM AND NEXT SHOT ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT/EARLY SUN. MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH QPF PATTERNS FOR NEXT EVENT AND WILL FOLLOW A MIX FOR
GRIDS.

MAIN SFC TROUGH STILL LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH STRONG
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER RED RIVER VALLEY/NORTHWEST MN PORTION OF
FA. STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC WITH KFAR GUSTING TO 30KTS.
KMVX 88D STILL SHOWS 30-40KTS IN THE LOWER GATES FEEDING AMPLE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
MN. NWS IN GRAND FORKS ALREADY HAS RECEIVED NEARLY 1.50 INCHES OF
RAIN SO FAR WITH HEAVIER RAIN BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE CITY. HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING IN GF. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW TO
HANDLE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE FOR TODAY. HEALTHY LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z SAT WITH MAIN UPPER WAVE
SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WITH SOME CONVECTION YET FIRING IN
FAR SOUTHWEST FA...BELIEVE WE WILL STILL SEE SOME TRAINING ALONG THE
VALLEY AND INTO MN COUNTIES YET THRU THE MORNING. SO WILL REFINE THE
FLOOD WATCH ACCORDINGLY.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE NEXT WAVE DROPPING THRU TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
ALL MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY DECENT QPF ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF OF
FA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS DEPARTING CONVECTION...THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING/HEATING DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS
INITIALLY QUITE HIGH (90S)...SO BELIEVE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LATE.
850 MB JET GETS CRANKING AGAIN BY 06Z SUN WITH COUPLED 250 MB JET AS
WELL. SPC HAS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK AGAIN AND THEIR SWODY1 DISCUSSION
ALSO MENTIONS BEST CHANCE BEING LATE. SEE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS WAVE...WITH BEST CHANCE SHIFTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN FA. HOWEVER WILL AVOID CONFUSION AT THIS TIME AND
STICK WITH ONE HEADLINE (LET NEXT SHIFT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH IF
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE). MAY REMOVE CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS
SOUTHERN FA SUN NIGHT/MON AS NEW MODEL RUNS LOOKING LESS AGRESSIVE
WITH THIS NEXT EVENT. NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED.

.FGF...FLOOD WATCH ALONG NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
MN ZONES FOR THIS MORNING.

GODON

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.