Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 25, 2002Becker County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 25, 2002, 7:51 PM CDT for Becker County, Minnesota. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 25, 2002, 7:51 PM CDT (00:51 UTC)
Expired: Jul 25, 2002, 8:30 PM CDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Becker County, MN

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 773 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1237 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 55 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 90 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

107 
WUUS53 KFGF 260051
SVRFAR
MNC005-260130-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
751 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  EASTERN BECKER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT.

* AT 746 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANY POINT LAKE...OR ABOUT
  20 MILES NORTHEAST OF DETROIT LAKES...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
  AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  HEIGHT OF LAND LAKE AT 815 PM AND
  TOAD LAKE AT 825 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4713 9549 4708 9577 4675 9564 4675 9525


55

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 25, 2:10 PM CDT, 5 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 25, 2:10 PM CDT, 5 hours 41 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
210 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY

.OVERVIEW...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SECONDARY TROUGH JUST WEST OF
VALLEY...AHEAD OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ND. SOME
TOWERING CUMULUS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR TROUGH...IN AREA OF
1000J/KG CAPE AND LOWER/MID 60S DEWPOINTS. WITH AVN/ETA NOT
RUNNING...WILL UTILIZE CANADIAN MODEL WITH EXTRAPOLATION AND RUC FOR
FIRST 12 HOURS OF FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...
WITH TROUGH AND WEAK VORT MAX...WILL INSERT ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG
AND EAST OF VALLEY THIS EVENING. CAPES APPROACH 1500 J/KG...BUT WITH
LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DON/T ANTICIPATE AND SEVERE STORMS WITH
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 60 AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SATURATION OCCURRING WITH MINIMAL DRY AIR
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...
REGION REMAINS IN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...WITH HARD TO TIME
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH FLOW. BEST CHANCE AT THUNDER APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CAPES SHOULD APPROACH 3000 J/KG SATURDAY...ALONG WITH SFC
BOUNDARY...SO SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF
CAP...WHICH HAS BEEN UNDERDONE BY MODELS OF LATE. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW/MID 80S SATURDAY...COOLING A BIT SUNDAY TO AROUND 80.

.EXTENDED...
MODELS SHIFTING GEARS TOWARDS PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE PATTERN
OVER CONUS. ABOVE SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK OVER REGION AS
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VICINITY OF WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST PUMPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DURING
TRANSITIONAL STAGE CONVECTIVE THREAT LOOMS ON THE HORIZON FOR
MONDAY...OTHERWISE DEVELOPING PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WITH INCREASING WARMTH IN THE MID LAYERS PRODUCING
INHIBITING CAP FOR ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/THREAT.

.FGF...NONE

KELLENBENZ/BERG

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 25, 2:26 PM CDT, 5 hours 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
226 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0110 AM    1 NE HAWLEY               MN   .88 INCH HAIL 07/25/02
CLAY

0130 AM    9 S  LIDGERWOOD           ND   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/25/02   RICHLAND                       SHINGLES TORN FROM ROOF

0200 AM    7 N LAKE PARK             MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/25/02   BECKER

WJB

Local storm report, Jul 25, 5:15 PM CDT, 2 hours 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
515 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0504 PM    3 NW HAUG                 MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/25/02   ROSEAU

BJB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 25, 7:18 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Clay	117 min
Jul 25, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Mahnomen	35 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.