Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 25, 2002Polk County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 25, 2002, 5:55 PM CDT for Polk County, Minnesota. It was in force for 35 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 25, 2002, 5:55 PM CDT (22:55 UTC)
Expired: Jul 25, 2002, 6:30 PM CDT
In force: 35 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Polk County, MN

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 25, 6:00 PM CDT	Hail 0.75	Erskine, MN

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 212 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -127 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 514 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 87 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 126 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

433 
WUUS53 KFGF 252255
SVRFAR
MNC119-252330-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
555 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  EASTERN POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT.

* AT 549 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTH OF ERSKINE...OR ABOUT 34 MILES
  SOUTH OF THIEF RIVER FALLS...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 15
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  MCINTOSH AT 600 PM...
  OLGA AT 605 PM AND
  FOSSTON AT 620 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4782 9562 4764 9619 4753 9608 4754 9561


55

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 25, 2:10 PM CDT, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 25, 2:10 PM CDT, 3 hours 45 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
210 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY

.OVERVIEW...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SECONDARY TROUGH JUST WEST OF
VALLEY...AHEAD OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ND. SOME
TOWERING CUMULUS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR TROUGH...IN AREA OF
1000J/KG CAPE AND LOWER/MID 60S DEWPOINTS. WITH AVN/ETA NOT
RUNNING...WILL UTILIZE CANADIAN MODEL WITH EXTRAPOLATION AND RUC FOR
FIRST 12 HOURS OF FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...
WITH TROUGH AND WEAK VORT MAX...WILL INSERT ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG
AND EAST OF VALLEY THIS EVENING. CAPES APPROACH 1500 J/KG...BUT WITH
LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DON/T ANTICIPATE AND SEVERE STORMS WITH
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 60 AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SATURATION OCCURRING WITH MINIMAL DRY AIR
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...
REGION REMAINS IN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...WITH HARD TO TIME
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH FLOW. BEST CHANCE AT THUNDER APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CAPES SHOULD APPROACH 3000 J/KG SATURDAY...ALONG WITH SFC
BOUNDARY...SO SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF
CAP...WHICH HAS BEEN UNDERDONE BY MODELS OF LATE. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW/MID 80S SATURDAY...COOLING A BIT SUNDAY TO AROUND 80.

.EXTENDED...
MODELS SHIFTING GEARS TOWARDS PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE PATTERN
OVER CONUS. ABOVE SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK OVER REGION AS
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VICINITY OF WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST PUMPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DURING
TRANSITIONAL STAGE CONVECTIVE THREAT LOOMS ON THE HORIZON FOR
MONDAY...OTHERWISE DEVELOPING PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WITH INCREASING WARMTH IN THE MID LAYERS PRODUCING
INHIBITING CAP FOR ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/THREAT.

.FGF...NONE

KELLENBENZ/BERG

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 25, 2:26 PM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
226 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0110 AM    1 NE HAWLEY               MN   .88 INCH HAIL 07/25/02
CLAY

0130 AM    9 S  LIDGERWOOD           ND   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/25/02   RICHLAND                       SHINGLES TORN FROM ROOF

0200 AM    7 N LAKE PARK             MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/25/02   BECKER

WJB

Local storm report, Jul 25, 5:15 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
515 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0504 PM    3 NW HAUG                 MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/25/02   ROSEAU

BJB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 25, 1:09 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clay	51 min
Jul 25, 1:56 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker	49 min
Jul 25, 2:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker	49 min
Jul 25, 4:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Roseau	41 min
Jul 25, 6:22 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Polk	38 min
Jul 25, 6:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Mahnomen	39 min
Jul 25, 6:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clay	51 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.