Severe Thunderstorm Warning 297, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002

OVERVIEW: UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY MAIN FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA.
COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO INTO ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS TN VALLEY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS WESTERN MS LATE WEDNESDAY.  MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE
MUCH NEEDED CONVECTIVE RAINS TO MOST OF CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.  UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION BY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO WARM CWA WIDE...INCREASING SURFACE DRIVEN INSTABILITY...AIDING IN
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF CWA THIS EVENING.
BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS IN AN AXIS BETWEEN AHN TO ATL TO CSG THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE SURFACE BASED LI VALUES ARE IN -6 TO -7 RANGE.
LARGE HAIL (DIME TO QUARTER) ALONGSIDE DAMAGING WINDS MAIN POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER PULSE TYPE STORMS.  FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS AS PWS
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.  CONTINUE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  ETA/AVN BOTH INDICATE RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTION WITH SUBTLE EAST-WEST BOUNDARY ON
THURSDAY ALONGSIDE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF SUPERGEOSTROPHIC FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. PE AND OMEGA FIELDS IN LINE WITH THIS AREA. THIS WOULD
PROPOSE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OR NEAR WARM/STATIONARY BOUNDARY.  TEMP WISE...WILL STICK WITH
ONGOING NUMBERS

EXTENDED:  MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT BUILDING RIDGE
INTO REGION TOWARDS WEEKEND.  EXPECT DECREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS CLOSE TO GFS ENS NUMBERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENT IN SHORT TERM...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION THURSDAY.  CONFIDENT LONG TERM ON DRY AND
HOT INTO NEXT WEEK.

FCSTID = 39

ATL  72 88 72 88 /  30 60 40 50
AHN  70 88 71 88 /  30 60 40 50
GVL  70 87 70 87 /  30 60 40 50
RMG  71 89 71 89 /  30 60 40 50
CSG  72 91 72 90 /  30 60 40 50
MCN  72 90 72 90 /  30 60 40 50

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

OUR DETAILED COUNTY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT FOUS52 KFFC.
OUR AREA FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CITIES IS AVAILABLE
AT FLUS42 KFFC.

JCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
422 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 PM    HIAWASSEE                 GA   0.88 INCH HAIL
07/23/02   TOWNS                          REPORTED BY TOWNS COUNTY
                                          911.

0400 PM    HIAWASSEE                 GA   WIND DAMAGE
07/23/02   TOWNS                          SEVERAL TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY TOWNS COUNTY 911.