Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

November 26, 2002Caldwell County, Guadalupe County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 26, 2002, 3:35 AM CST for Caldwell County, Guadalupe County, Texas. It was in force for 55 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 26, 2002, 3:35 AM CST (09:35 UTC)
Expired
Nov 26, 2002, 4:30 AM CST
In force
55 min
Issued by
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Caldwell County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 221 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2002-11-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 298 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2002-11-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 217 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
298 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-51 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
616 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
217 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
307 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KEWX 260935
SVRSAT
TXC055-187-261030-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN TEXAS...
  CALDWELL
  GUADALUPE

* UNTIL 430 AM CST

* AT 335 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARTINDALE TO 16
  MILES SOUTH OF MARION...OR FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOCKHART TO 14
  MILES NORTH OF FLORESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE...
  OVER LULING AT 405 AM

LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE IN 
THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A 
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.


LAT...LON 3001 9768 2958 9820 2948 9811 2942 9810
          2940 9786 2962 9770 2982 9745

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 26, 3:00 AM CST, 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 26, 3:00 AM CST, 35 minutes before
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
300 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2002

CURRENT WEATHER ANALYSIS...
THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS GIVEN THE REGION A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOLLOWED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE REGION...CLOUDY SKIES AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. 88D RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND THE HILL COUNTRY.

CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE ANALYSIS...
THE 00Z AVN MOS AND THE NGM MOS BOTH HAVE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ETA TIME HEIGHT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY HAS
100 PERCENT R/H VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FROM 5 TO 8K TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A VERY DRY LOWER
LAYER AT THE SURFACE TO 5K. AVN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND 0.8
INCHES.

THE GFS...ETA AND NGM ALL HAVE SIMILAR TRENDS IN THAT THEY BRING
REINFORCING RIDGES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS FOLLOWS YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE INDICATING ANOTHER FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND YET ANOTHER ON SATURDAY. 500MB
GUIDANCE BRING KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A DEEP LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BAJA THROUGH 72 HOURS.

CURRENT WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE BIG QUESTIONS IS...THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR COLD
AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NOT AS
COLD AS EXPECTED AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY TOO LOW TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE. ONGOING RAIN/SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DECREASING TREND LATE
TODAY AND INTO THE NIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING SOUTH OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AS DIRER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AUS 45/35/47/35/50 64320
DRT 45/35/45/35/50 54320
SAT 47/37/47/35/52 64320

.EWX...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 25, 5:42 AM CST, 21 hours 53 minutes before
TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
542 AM CST MON NOV 25 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS 2 THROUGH 7...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE FREEZING
MARK.  IF FREEZING RAIN DOES DEVELOP...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 26, 3:33 AM CST, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
333 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0235 AM    BULVERDE                  TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
11/26/02   BEXAR

PM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 26, 2:47 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBlanco, Comal, Hays58 min
Nov 26, 3:21 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXTravis54 min
Nov 26, 4:06 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXWilliamson54 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.