Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

November 26, 2002Blanco County, Comal County, Hays County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 26, 2002, 2:47 AM CST for Blanco County, Comal County, Hays County, Texas. It was in force for 58 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 26, 2002, 2:47 AM CST (08:47 UTC)
Expired: Nov 26, 2002, 3:45 AM CST
In force: 58 min
Issued by: NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Blanco County, TX, Comal County, TX, Hays County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 247 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1191 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 125 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 263 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

953 
WUUS54 KEWX 260847
SVRSAT
TXC031-091-209-260945-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
246 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN TEXAS...
  BLANCO
  HAYS
  COMAL

* UNTIL 345 AM CST

* AT 246 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CANYON LAKE...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CANYON LAKE AT 315 AM
  2 MILES WEST OF WOODCREEK AT 345 AM

GOLF BALL LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF 
YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE 
TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.


LAT...LON 2981 9854 2974 9835 3004 9793 3024 9832
          3005 9849 2995 9840

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 25, 8:50 PM CST, 5 hours 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 25, 8:50 PM CST, 5 hours 57 minutes before

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
850 PM CST MON NOV 25 2002

PRETTY GOOD RANGE OF DEW POINTS ACROSS CWA...LOWER 30S EXTREME
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  CURRENTLY...DRY LOWEST LAYERS KEEPING
MOST RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND.  HOWEVER...THESE LOWEST LAYERS
SHOULD MOISTEN UP OVER NIGHT AND SERIES OF VORT MAXES WILL ENHANCE
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  TONIGHTS LOWS LOOK OK
AT THIS POINT.  IN UPDATE WILL ONLY ADJUST INCONSISTENT LOWS IN A
COUPLE OF ZONE GROUPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

3/13/DC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN
SETTING UP AND 850MB FLOW BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE SE. THE BIG
QUESTIONS/CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN-MOST HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES AND
WHEN(IF) PRECIP WILL SHUT OFF THIS WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY PUSH SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET SUB FREEZING TEMPS INTO THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY...BUT PRECIP FALLING INTO THAT LAYER SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO GET TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 06Z
AND 15Z WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST...BUT ENOUGH COULD ACCUMULATE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TO
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS.

THE LATEST DATA FROM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE
GFS...CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING OFFSHORE OF SOCAL
AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING(SUBSIDENCE) TAKING OVER HERE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM HPC
LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS...WHICH FAVORS OUR CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO PRECIP ON TURKEY DAY OR FRIDAY.

WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE IN THE CYCLE AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DAYS 5-7.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION SJT

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AUS RE 039/043 035/047 032 465
DRT RE 041/046 035/049 034 354
SAT RR 041/045 037/047 034 465

.EWX...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 25, 5:42 AM CST, 21 hours 5 minutes before

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
542 AM CST MON NOV 25 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS 2 THROUGH 7...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE FREEZING
MARK.  IF FREEZING RAIN DOES DEVELOP...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 26, 3:21 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Travis	54 min
Nov 26, 3:35 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Caldwell, Guadalupe	55 min
Nov 26, 4:06 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Williamson	54 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.