Flash Flood Warning 168, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2002

LOW ALOFT OVER AR THIS AFTN WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROF EXTENDING
SW TO ANOTHER LOW OVR S CNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH
TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST TUESDAY.   THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW UNSTABLE CONDS TO CONT OVR S CNTRL TX THRU TUESDAY.
A SERIES OF EVOLVING RAIN AREAS MAY MOVE NORTHWARD OVER S CNTRL
TEXAS LATER TODAY AND CONT THRU TUESDAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE.   AS A RESULT WILL SHOW FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE CWA THRU TUESDAY.  WILL MENTION POPS WITH RAIN...SHRA AND
TSRA TO INDICATE VARIABILITY IN CONVECTIVE RAIN AREAS VS.
RAIN AREAS IN WAKE OF OR NEAR CONVECTIVE AREAS...AS RAIN.

ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEFTOVER AREAS OF RAIN IN WAKE OF WHAT EVOLVES
TUESDAY MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA IN A SCATTERED PATTERN.  AS THE DAY
UNFOLDS ON WEDNESDAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDS BEGIN TO BECOME LESS
UNSETTLED OR WORK THEIR WAY TO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDS.
THE JULY 17TH WEDNESDAY PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BE THE MAIN VARIABLE TO CAUSE SCT SHRA.  THIS CONCLUSION IS FORECAST
FROM THE FACT THAT HI FROM EAST WILL BUILD ITS WAY WEST OVER
AREA...ALBEIT IN A WEAK WAY...ON WEDNESDAY...AS LOW GETS SLOWLY
PULLED NORTHEAST.

ON THURSDAY FORECASTS SHOW HIGH ALOFT INCREASING OVER
S CNTRL TX...AS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF AREA MOVES
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...PULLED EAST BY STRONG
MID LAT TROF MOVG ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA. DAYTIME HEATING
ON THURSDAY COULD CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE DAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTI NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN TIME SHOW A MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST INDICATING A WEAK SUBTROP HIGH
BUILDING OVER S. CNTRL TX...CAUSING MORE STABLE CONDS.  THIS
MID TO LATE JULY WX PATTERN...IF IT MAKES THE MARK...SHOWS
THAT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE DECREASING AND BECOMING LOW.
THIS TREND NOT ONLY SHOWS UP FRIDAY THE 19TH TO SUNDAY THE
21ST...IT ALSO SHOWS UP FOR NEXT WEEK JUL 22 TO 27...EVEN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE LAST WEEKEND OF JULY...ON THE 27TH AND 28TH.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT FORMS IN LATE JULY OF 2002 WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS STRONG AS ONES THAT FORMED IN JULY OF 2000 AND
2001.

THE JULY 2002 WET RAIN PERIOD IS SIMILIAR TO THE PATTERN THAT
OCCURRED AROUND JUL 3 TO JUL 20...1976...WHEN THE AREA WAS ALSO
AFFECTED BY A RAIN EVENT.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
AUS 71/86/72/92/73 79431
DRT 72/91/74/93/75 56332
SAT 72/88/74/92/75 78431

.EWX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND HILL COUNTRY
THRU TUESDAY.

08/19/23