Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Detroit, MI

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1020 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2002

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...
NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND INTO LAKE ERIE. THIS IS A REGION OF HIGH
THETA-E AIR...AND ALSO MOST LIKELY WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAS SET UP (NO REAL INDICATION IN THE SURFACE
OBS...BUT VISIBLE IMAGE DID INDICATE SOME BOUNDARY HERE).  APPEARS
TO BE AN ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND INTO CENTRAL
LOWER. GAYLORD...HTL...AND MT PLEASANT ALL HAVE THE WEST
WIND...WHILE WINDS ARE ALMOST SOUTHERLY TO THE EAST. VISIBLE IMAGE
ALSO PICKS UP ON THIS BOUNDARY TOO.  OTHER WEAK FORCING FEATURES ARE
INDICATED ON THE RUC AND MESO ETA AS THERE WILL BE A WEAK 50H
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

12Z DTX SOUNDING STILL HAS DECENT WIND FLOW WITH 50 KTS AT 500 MB.
ALSO WITH UPPER 80S AND 70 TO 75 DEW POINTS THERE IS NO CAP AND
CAPES REACH 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. EXPECT TCU...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THESE WEAK FORCING FEATURES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
GIVEN THE HIGH CAPES AND STRONG WIND FIELD. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
SEVERE CHANCES COULD DIMINISH AFTER THIS EVENING FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE WIND FIELD WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...AND ANY EXPECT MCS TO OUR
WEST SHOULD NOT MOVE IN UNTIL MONDAY MORNING AT THE EARLIEST.

WITH ALL OF THE EXPECTED CU TO DEVELOP...AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS...TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK. WILL LOWER TEMPS JUST A
BIT...MORE LIKE NEAR 90 INSTEAD OF THE LOWER 90S. WITH THE LOWER
TEMPS...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

.DTX...NONE.

RBP

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-290400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1112 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2002

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

HAZARDS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY M 59. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THERE ARE ALSO WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES
ACROSS PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...BUT ANY SEVERE
STORM NORTH OF M 59 SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AROUND 35 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO A
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN HAZARD. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO... OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS... FOR
THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN THE LATEST FORECAST ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB SITE.

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

RBP