Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Detroit, MI

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1110 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2002

SURFACE BASED CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE WINDS STRONGLY BACKED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THIS
HAS LED TO A WIND PROFILE WITH GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS
ADVERTISED BY THE SUPERCELL MOVING THROUGH SW LOWER.

AFTER THIS ROUND OF STORMS, WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR ANY
NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CURRENT STORMS THERE APPEAR
TO BE STRUGGLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE 700 MB CAPPING INVERSION,
BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A NEW COMPLEX TO FORM AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT.

.DTX...NONE.

BT

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-281000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2002

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

HAZARDS...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 60 MPH.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITH STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT ABOUT 45 MPH...ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AND INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH... ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM IN
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH THE STORMS EXITING TO OUR EAST BY AROUND
MID MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO... OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS... FOR
THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN THE LATEST FORECAST ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB SITE.

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

BT

MIZ075-082-083-280800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1044 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2002

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 541 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 AM EDT SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

     WASHTENAW...LENAWEE...AND MONROE

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. IF YOU
LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MANN