Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Duluth, MN

September 1, 2002Aitkin County, Carlton County, Pine County, Minnesota

NWS Duluth, MN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 1, 2002, 2:11 PM CDT for Aitkin County, Carlton County, Pine County, Minnesota. It was in force for 49 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Sep 1, 2002, 2:11 PM CDT (19:11 UTC)
Expired: Sep 1, 2002, 3:00 PM CDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Duluth, MN
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Aitkin County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Pine County, MN

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Sep 1, 2:30 PM CDT	Hail 0.88	Sandstone, MN	The hail lasted 30 minutes.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 1, 12:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 319 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -200 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1215 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 208 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 219 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 1, 3:25 AM CDT, 10 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 1, 3:25 AM CDT, 10 hours 46 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2002

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TSRA CHANCES TODAY AND MONDAY. MODELS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND WILL USE A MIX OF ETA/AVN.

MOSAIC OF AREA 88-DS SHOW AN MCS COVERING EXTREME EASTERN ND/NW MN
ATTM. POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN ND/NW MN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MCS. MCS IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS PER LATEST MSAS SFC DATA. THE TROF WILL LIFT NE INTO ONTARIO
TODAY. ENOUGH FORCING WITH THIS TROF...EVEN AS IT DEPARTS...TO
MENTION SCATTERED TSRA OVER THE CWFA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING
NORTH CENTRAL WI WHICH WILL LIKELY MISS OUT ON THE MORNING
CONVECTION. THIS AREA WILL SEE SOME TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST AND BULLSEYE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM 06Z ETA RUN. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN FORECAST
PACKAGE.

INITIAL COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO NW WI WHERE IT WASHES OUT AS
OVERALL SUPPORT FOR IT DIMINISHES. SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH NEXT IN SERIES OF POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROFS. COLD FRONT REACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. THE FA
WILL BE IN-BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR SOMEWHAT FROM W TO E. HAVE PLACED A LOW POP IN EASTERN WI FA
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DECAYING FRONT.

THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
FA ON MONDAY. AVN A BIT COOLER THAT THE ETA WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING
TO 8C IN NW MN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
POINTING TOWARD A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSRA OUTBREAK ON MONDAY.
ETA SFC BASED LIS FROM -4 TO -6C ACROSS THE FA AND SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG ON A 30 KT LLJ. COLD FRONT WILL BE
PASSING THROUGH RIGHT AT MAX HEATING...ESPECIALLY NW WI. SEE SWODY2
FOR MORE DETAILS. WILL BUMP UP POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

WILL BLEND MOS VALUES FOR TEMPS.

.DLH...NONE.

GSF

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 1, 9:00 AM CDT, 5 hours 11 minutes before

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-012000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
900 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2002

HAZARD...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY. SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...
WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP FROM PINE CITY TO SPOONER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE
AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY
OR TONIGHT.

.END

DAP

Special weather statement, Sep 1, 11:55 AM CDT, 2 hours 16 minutes before

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-012000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2002

HAZARD...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN BY THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA IS SOUTH OF A PARK RAPIDS...TO DULUTH TO
HURLEY LINE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.END

DAP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Duluth, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 1, 12:38 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	DLH		67 min
Sep 1, 1:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Aitkin	27 min
Sep 1, 3:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Pine	27 min
Sep 1, 5:17 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DLH	Pine	3 hr
Sep 1, 3:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Burnett	52 min
Sep 1, 3:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Douglas	63 min
Sep 1, 3:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Washburn	42 min
Sep 1, 3:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Washburn	41 min
Sep 1, 4:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Burnett	64 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.