Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2002

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TSRA CHANCES TODAY AND MONDAY. MODELS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND WILL USE A MIX OF ETA/AVN.

MOSAIC OF AREA 88-DS SHOW AN MCS COVERING EXTREME EASTERN ND/NW MN
ATTM. POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN ND/NW MN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MCS. MCS IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS PER LATEST MSAS SFC DATA. THE TROF WILL LIFT NE INTO ONTARIO
TODAY. ENOUGH FORCING WITH THIS TROF...EVEN AS IT DEPARTS...TO
MENTION SCATTERED TSRA OVER THE CWFA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING
NORTH CENTRAL WI WHICH WILL LIKELY MISS OUT ON THE MORNING
CONVECTION. THIS AREA WILL SEE SOME TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST AND BULLSEYE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM 06Z ETA RUN. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN FORECAST
PACKAGE.

INITIAL COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO NW WI WHERE IT WASHES OUT AS
OVERALL SUPPORT FOR IT DIMINISHES. SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH NEXT IN SERIES OF POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROFS. COLD FRONT REACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. THE FA
WILL BE IN-BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR SOMEWHAT FROM W TO E. HAVE PLACED A LOW POP IN EASTERN WI FA
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DECAYING FRONT.

THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
FA ON MONDAY. AVN A BIT COOLER THAT THE ETA WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING
TO 8C IN NW MN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
POINTING TOWARD A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSRA OUTBREAK ON MONDAY.
ETA SFC BASED LIS FROM -4 TO -6C ACROSS THE FA AND SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG ON A 30 KT LLJ. COLD FRONT WILL BE
PASSING THROUGH RIGHT AT MAX HEATING...ESPECIALLY NW WI. SEE SWODY2
FOR MORE DETAILS. WILL BUMP UP POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

WILL BLEND MOS VALUES FOR TEMPS.

.DLH...NONE.

GSF

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-012000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
900 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2002

HAZARD...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY. SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...
WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP FROM PINE CITY TO SPOONER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE
AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY
OR TONIGHT.

.END

DAP

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-012000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2002

HAZARD...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN BY THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA IS SOUTH OF A PARK RAPIDS...TO DULUTH TO
HURLEY LINE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.END

DAP