Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
145 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

...MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS FORECAST IS EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER MY EASTERN CWA. AFTER THAT THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
TOMORROWS FROPA...

THE 12Z DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES WITH A VIGOROUS AND DEEPENING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
WASHINGTON AND OREGON DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. MEANWHILE A
FAIRLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH CONTINUES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS CURRENTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO AND HEADING FOR KANSAS. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE THE NORTHERN BRANCH
FRONT REMAINS STALLED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS KANSAS. A
STRONG AND DISTINCT DRY LINE EMANATES FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH THETA E AIR ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF
THE DRY LINE BEING ADVECTED NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
KDDC 12Z SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
PROFILES EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DRY LINE YIELDS AN UNCAPPED
AIRMASS WITH NEARLY 5000 J/KG GIVEN A 65F DEWPOINT AND 92F
TEMPERATURE. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT MAY BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRANCH BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD LIMIT HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR SOMEWHAT ALTHOUGH
THE CURRENT CLEAR SLOW FROM LIBERAL NORTHEAST TO GREAT BEND MAY
ALLOW ENOUGH INSOLATION TO REACH THE LOW 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE EVENING HOURS THEN THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS QUITE
REASONABLE WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WAKEENEY AND DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN THIS AREA
CURRENTLY YIELDS A CONVECTIVE CAP OF AROUND 2C WHICH SHOULD EASILY
BE BROKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE
ADDING TO THE BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WERE NOT GREAT ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS, BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY HAS MOVED BACK NORTH OF DODGE CITY AND THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS, INCREASING SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS RAPIDLY
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY AVAILABLE TO STORM UPDRAFTS.
ALL IN ALL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS FIRE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE DRY LINE OR THE SURFACE
FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST BRINGING
DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

BEYOND TONIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR REALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING
HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF TIME AVAILABLE TO SPEND ON THE FORECAST.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE MODELS APPEAR REASONABLY WELL INITIALIZED
AND WILL TRUST THEM FOR NOW WITH THE LATER PERIODS IN BRINGING THE
POLAR FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA FORCED BY THE NORTHERN BRANCH
STRONG SHORT WAVE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WILL GO A LITTLE BELOW
THE FWC MOS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AND WILL EXPECT CONSIDERABLE NORTH
WIND GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIR FOR MAY WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD AND SOME UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BEHIND
THE FRONT ALSO SEEMS REASONABLE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLD HIGH TAKES OVER CLEARING SKIES ON
THURSDAY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TOMORROW WITH THE
FRONT BUT WILL LET THE NIGHT SHIFT MAKE THAT CALL.

DAYS 3-7...
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS DOMINATED MY
THOUGHTS TODAY, THEREFORE, WILL PLAN TO KEEP THIS BRIEF. OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE RETURNING WITH THIS FEATURE, DECIDED TO ADD STORM
POPS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
UNTOUCHED TODAY. NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH CWA SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   57  76  46  61 /  30   0  50   0
GCK   54  74  45  64 /   0   0  50   0
EHA   55  78  46  65 /   0   0  50   0
LBL   56  78  46  64 /   0   0  50   0
HYS   57  71  37  62 /  40   0  30   0
P28   64  81  49  67 /  40   0  30   0

.DDC...NONE.

JOHNSON/MCCAMMON