Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

DAYS 1-2...

CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD AMOUNT WAA AT 85H LVL PRESENT FROM 12Z ANALYSIS
AHEAD OF THESE DEVELOPING STORMS. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS S/W TROF CROSSES CNTL KS.
ANOTHER WAVE CROSSING OUR WRN CONUS RIDGE DROPPING SOUTH INTO CO
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PCPN OVER ERN CO. WITH GOOD INSTAB PRESENT HERE
AS WELL, ALONG WITH MOISTURE EXPECT THE STORMS DEVELOPING IN ERN CO
THIS AFTERNOON TO CROSS INTO SW KS LATER THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL GO WITH CAT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND LIKELY IN THE
NORTH. AGREE WITH SPC THAT MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS, BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL EARLY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE NW FLOW CONTINUES. ANOTHER WAVE
CROSSING THE PLAINS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SO SEE NO REASON WHY
ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN IS NOT POSSIBLE. WILL USE AVN FOR TIMING OF
NEXT WAVE WHICH POINTS TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

ON MONDAY THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AS A LEE TROF STARTS TO
DEVELOP. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY GIVE RISE TO A FEW
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WEST.

DAYS 3-7...

THE ETA MODEL OUT TO 60HRS AND THE 15/00Z MRF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
OUT TO 18/00Z (MON EVENING).  THIS SHOWS A CHANCE FOR A SHORT WAVE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO ZOOM SOUTH ALONG EAST SLOPES OF ROCKIES AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES, LOOKS LIKE CWA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WARMUP.
THINK THIS WILL BE A GRADUAL WARM UP SO WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN LEVEL OFF IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.  AS THE SURFACE HEATS UP EACH AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION WED-THU-FRI AND INTO
SATURDAY.  FOR NOW, BACK OFF OF WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOW WARMUP
RECOVERY TIME.  OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS EXTENDED
FORECAST.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   59  81  63  89 /  60   0  20  30
GCK   59  84  63  93 /  80   0  40  40
EHA   61  85  64  93 /  80   0  50  40
LBL   62  83  62  89 /  80   0  40  40
HYS   59  81  63  89 /  60   0  20  30
P28   65  81  62  84 /  70   0   0   0

.DDC...NONE.

FCSTID = 18/12