Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
302 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...250 MB JET MAX NOTED ON THIS EVENINGS U/A
DATA FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. CONVECTION
FIRED UNDERNEATH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AFOREMENTIONED JET MAX AND MOVED
SOUTHEAST BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WAA IN THE MID TROP
LEVELS STARTING IN EARNEST PER THE PROFILER DATA AND SHORT TERM
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THINK THAT MID-LEVEL WAA WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER TROP WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND ENHANCE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT, LOW-LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. UPSHOT IS THAT WITH MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
CWA AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF, THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
APPEAR VERY REASONABLE. THUS, WILL PLAN TO LEAVE WHAT WAS INHERITED
FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD OVER THE CWA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

FOR SUNDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS EXPECTED, HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CWA EXPERIENCED TODAY. WITH NO REAL DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL
FOCUSING MECHANISM EVIDENT, DECIDED TO NIL POPS CWA-WIDE. AS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAGNITUDE OF MOIST UPSLOPE SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT.
HOWEVER, GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, THE CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION STILL EXISTS, THEREFORE,
WILL SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS FOR ENTIRE CWA.

DAYS 3-7...

NO CHANGES.

THANKS FOR THE COORD ICT.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   79  58  83  59 /  70  60   0  30
GCK   80  57  84  58 /  70  60   0  30
EHA   84  58  86  58 /  40  60   0  30
LBL   83  58  85  60 /  60  60   0  30
HYS   76  57  81  58 /  70   0   0  30
P28   77  60  80  61 /  70  60   0  30

.DDC...NONE.

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
950 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0835 PM    12W LAKIN                 KS   1.75 IN HAIL
06/14/02   KEARNY                         SPOTTER REPORT

0901 AM    VICTORIA, SW EDGE         KS   0.75 IN HAIL
06/15/02   ELLIS                          HAIL COVERED GROUND AND
                                          STRONG WINDS ALSO REPORTED.
                                          SPOTTER REPORT

BURKE