Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A JET LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING.  THE
NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND HAD
MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST 12 HRS.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE
850 MB FRONTAL POSITION EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO.  AXIS OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.  LATEST
SURFACE OBS AND RADAR RETURNS SHOW THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NORTHWEST OF HAYS TO NEAR GARDEN CITY AND
ELKHART.  THE FRONT WAS CREEPING SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND HAD GONE STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER AS THE WINDS
AT ELKHART HAVE BEEN VARIABLE.  SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT WAS STILL
FAIRLY DIFFUSE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BUT LAMP DATA TRENDS SHOW THE
DRYLINE TIGHTENING UP AND SHOWING EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

FOR THE NEAR TERM, FSL LAPS FORECAST DATA POINT TOWARD THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY
22Z WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z AND THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE.  WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT VORT MAXES TO HELP
ORGANIZE THE CONVECTION, THINK THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL BEING IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA FROM HAYS AND NESS
CITY TO THE EAST.  EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THAT ARE NOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WHERE THE
LOW LEVELS ARE DRIER.

ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO NUDGE THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.  OVERALL LIKE THE ETA POSITION OF THE
FRONT SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND STAFFORD AND PRATT TO LIBERAL OR JUST TO
THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AGAIN BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT BUT WITH UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENING OVERHEAD
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST, WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA.

HAVE RAISES TONIGHTS LOWS AND TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK
PRETTY GOOD.  ETA AND AVN MODELS DIVERGE IN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
COOLING THAT TAKES PLACE ON WEDNESDAY.  FEEL THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE BUT LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD THE
WARMER ETA TEMPERATURES.

DAYS 3-7...

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO PUT INTO EXTENDED PERIODS TODAY DUE TO NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE INITIATION CONCERNS. FORTUNATELY, THE EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS APPEAR IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERNS
AND THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS EXTENDED DISCUSSION LOOKS ON TRACK.

THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF
THE SOUTHERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE INTO MID WEEK ESTABLISHING A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR THE PLAINS WITH A POLAR FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY. WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OF MID WEEK INTO
THURSDAY AND LOOK FOR A WARM UP OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   71  93  64  79 /  30  20  30  30
GCK   68  90  61  77 /  20  20  30  30
EHA   69  91  60  82 /  20  10  20  30
LBL   69  94  63  81 /  20  10  20  30
HYS   71  86  62  76 /  40  20  30  30
P28   74  96  72  81 /  30  10  30  30

.DDC...NONE.

GERARD/JOHNSON