Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
227 AM CST THU DEC 12 2002

SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA
TODAY AND PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THIS DISTURBANCE WL
COMBINE WITH MSTR/INSTABILITY...COASTAL TROUGH/DEVELOPING SFC LOW TO
GENERATE CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN CWFA. STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION PSBL...MAINLY OVER THE NERN SECTIONS...OWING IN PART TO
LOW WET BULB ZERO VALUES AND MID LVL DRYING. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR
BY TNGT...RESULTING IN COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TNGT/FRI. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT.

EXTENDED...RTN FLOW EXPECTED BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE CWFA MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WL FCST
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DRG THOSE DAYS. WL NOT FCST PCPN AT THIS
TIME AS MSTR WL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.

MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE AS DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS AND UPPER TROUGH S/W PROVIDES ADDITIONAL LIFT.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR RUSHES IN.  THEN BORDERLINE SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS.  WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN
WELL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GOOD WEATHER AFTER THAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN.  WINDS PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.  WILL SEND OUT
MWS TODAY FOR EXPECTED CONVECTION...AGAIN SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG.

CRP EB 065/044 070/041 072 87400
VCT EB 060/042 069/039 071 87520
LRD EB 065/046 071/043 073 87000

.CRP...NONE.

87 (SYNOPTIC)
86 (MARINE)

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
550 AM CST THU DEC 12 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ARANSAS...BEE...
CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...
NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO AND VICTORIA COUNTIES THROUGH 11 AM.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD TEXAS WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
LATER TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

GW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
529 AM CST THU DEC 12 2002

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
VALID UNTIL 1100 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE
COUNTIES OF ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO AND VICTORIA.
SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE ALICE...ARANSAS PASS...
BEEVILLE...BENAVIDES...CORPUS CHRISTI...GEORGE WEST...GOLIAD...
INGLESIDE...KINGSVILLE...MATHIS...PORT ARANSAS...PORT LAVACA...PORT
OCONNOR...PORTLAND...REFUGIO...ROBSTOWN...ROCKPORT...SEADRIFT...
SINTON...SKIDMORE...THREE RIVERS AND VICTORIA.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER THE WATCH
AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF A DIME
OR LARGER...STRONG WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AND EVEN TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. IF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM
AND LAY DOWN ON THE FLOOR. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY FLAT DOWN ON THE
GROUND...PREFERABLY IN A DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT. NEVER TRY TO OUTRUN
SEVERE WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

WC