Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
227 AM CST THU DEC 12 2002

SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA
TODAY AND PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THIS DISTURBANCE WL
COMBINE WITH MSTR/INSTABILITY...COASTAL TROUGH/DEVELOPING SFC LOW TO
GENERATE CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN CWFA. STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION PSBL...MAINLY OVER THE NERN SECTIONS...OWING IN PART TO
LOW WET BULB ZERO VALUES AND MID LVL DRYING. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR
BY TNGT...RESULTING IN COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TNGT/FRI. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT.

EXTENDED...RTN FLOW EXPECTED BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE CWFA MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WL FCST
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DRG THOSE DAYS. WL NOT FCST PCPN AT THIS
TIME AS MSTR WL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.

MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE AS DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS AND UPPER TROUGH S/W PROVIDES ADDITIONAL LIFT.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR RUSHES IN.  THEN BORDERLINE SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS.  WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN
WELL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GOOD WEATHER AFTER THAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN.  WINDS PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.  WILL SEND OUT
MWS TODAY FOR EXPECTED CONVECTION...AGAIN SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG.

CRP EB 065/044 070/041 072 87400
VCT EB 060/042 069/039 071 87520
LRD EB 065/046 071/043 073 87000

.CRP...NONE.

87 (SYNOPTIC)
86 (MARINE)

TXZ229>234-239>247-121145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
544 AM CST WED DEC 11 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST BY
MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD TEXAS.  A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS REMAINING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY AND BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
AREA.  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GW