Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
155 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2002

FCST WILL REMAIN WET THROUGH SAT AS UPPER LOW CONTS TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION AND TAPS INTO MOISTURE FROM KENNA IN THE PAC ALONG WITH A
SERIES OF IMPULSES STREAMING ACROSS S TX.  QUESTION WILL BE TIMING
OF IMPULSES. TODAYS MCS SHOULD CONT EWD AND EXIT THE REGION WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE THIS EVENING AND STARTING
ALL OVER AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND FRI. WILL CONT FFA THROUGH FRI.

AVN AND ETA DIVERGE ON SAT. AVN SHOWS BEST UPPER LEV DYNAMICS
SHIFTING NEWD BY SAT AFTERNOON AS A CF MOVES SWD ACROSS THE
CWA...WHILE ETA KEEPS MOISTURE AND S/WV OVER S TX THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON AND CF STALLING WELL N OF THE AREA. THE AVN HAS PROGD THE
CF TO MV THRU THE AREA THE PAST 2 RUNS...HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL BE TO THE WEST WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD HINDER THE
SWD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROF OVR THE CWA AHD OF
CF ON FRI MAY MIMICK A CF MOVG THROUGH BY EARLY SAT AS ANOTHER S/WV
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL NOT BRING CF
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT WILL TWEAK WIND DIR MORE TO THE
E...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES. WIND DIR WILL LIKELY BE VRB ANYWAY DUE TO
TSRAS AND OUTFLOW BDRIES.

BY SUN...UPPER LOW CONTS TO THE WEST WITH YET ANOTHER S/WV. NEAR 2
INCH PWATS ALSO IN PLACE. UPPER LOW SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION BY
MON WITH S TX UNDER STRONGER PORTION OF RRQ OF JET. WILL CONT WITH
CHANCE POPS SUN/MON. BY TUE...UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE
REGION WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN WED AS A STRONG CF APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPS WED/THU.

MARINE...WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL REACH CAUTION LEVELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  COLD FRONT
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL GO
WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WIND. AIRMASS MOIST AND
VERY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRELIMS...
CRP TT 072/080 070/079 068 67677
VCT TT 069/079 067/075 065 67677
LRD TT 071/079 068/075 066 67666

.CRP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY TXZ229>234-239>247.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT TXZ230>234-240>247

TE...81
CPW...78

TXZ229>234-239>247-251100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1145 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND...VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY.

TXZ230>234-240>247-242100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1116 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2002

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
VALID UNTIL 400 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE
COUNTIES OF ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO AND
VICTORIA. SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE ALICE...ARANSAS
PASS...BEEVILLE...BENAVIDES...CORPUS CHRISTI...GEORGE WEST...
GOLIAD...INGLESIDE...KINGSVILLE...MATHIS...PORT ARANSAS...PORT
LAVACA...PORT OCONNOR...PORTLAND...REFUGIO...ROBSTOWN...ROCKPORT...
SEADRIFT...SINTON...SKIDMORE...THREE RIVERS...TILDEN AND VICTORIA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF A DIME
OR LARGER...STRONG WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AND EVEN TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. IF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM
AND LAY DOWN ON THE FLOOR. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY FLAT DOWN ON THE
GROUND...PREFERABLY IN A DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT. NEVER TRY TO OUTRUN
SEVERE WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP