Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
258 AM CDT WED OCT 23 2002

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS AREA IS PRODUCING LOTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PROBABLE WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.  SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AS AIRMASS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE CONTINUATION.  GENERALLY A WET PATTERN IN STORE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
WEAK WAVES ACROSS AREA...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY AND NO CAP.
WILL ISSUE FFA NOW AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
AND DEFINITELY MORE TO COME BEFORE THE WEEK IS OUT.  WILL JUST GO
WITH FFA THROUGH TODAY AS DEPENING ON HOW MUCH EFFECTS THIS MCS HAS
ON TEMPORARILY STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE AND THUS MAY BEE TOO QUIET
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WATCH.  HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED IF NOT FOR TONIGHT THEN AT LEAST SOME TIME THIS WEEK.
HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES PROGGED TO BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND PROXIMATE FRONTAL BOUNDAY...WHICH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH.  AVN NOW TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT SOME BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  NOT SURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR.  MRF NOW DROPPING
ANOTHER TROUGH DOWN ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL PROBABLY LET DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

PRELIMS...
CRP TT 083/071 082/071 081 65767
NGP    082/072 081/072 081
ALI TT 086/070 083/070 082 55667
VCT TT 078/066 078/067 077 65767
LRD ET 086/070 083/070 080 46577
RKP TT 081/071 081/071 081 65767

MARINE...EXPECT THE E-W BNDRY ACROSS SRN TX TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH FRI. THIS BNDRY WL COMBINE WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE
AND LOW BRN ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE STG CONVECTION DRG THE PERIOD.
EVEN STRONGER/MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY OWING TO THE
ADDITION OF STG UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS/PLAINS. EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRI NGT IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM...
WITH SCA CONDITIONS BY SAT OFFSHORE.

.CRP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY TXZ229>234-239>247.

86/GW...87/WC

TXZ229>234-239>247-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
704 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE IN PART TO A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK...YET IS EXPECTED TO STALL. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WC

TXZ229>234-239>247-231100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1039 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2002

...AN ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH TEXAS...

SOUTH TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH A STRONG JET STREAM AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL BEND...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH TEXAS LATER IN THE WEEK.  ADDITIONAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY MAY EXCEED 5 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS LIVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
UNFOLDING WEATHER SITUATION.  PEOPLE LIVING ALONG RIVERS...CREEKS
AND STREAMS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FALLS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE WATER RISES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

85

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI,TX
411 AM CDT WED OCT 23 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0345 AM    ALICE                     TX   73 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
10/23/02   JIM WELLS

GW