Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2002

MESOSCALE BOUNDARY AT 02Z IN THE VICINITY OF AN ARTESIA
WELLS-HEBRONVILLE-FALFURRIAS-BAFFIN BAY LINE. DFX/CRP/BRO VWP SHOWED
A 20-30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET OVERRIDING THIS BOUNDARY AND PROVIDING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A 500HPA SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THAT THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS STILL
VIGOROUS...FEEL THAT THE STRONGER 1000-850 WINDS PER THE RUC ARE
MORE REASONABLE AND WOULD SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND
ENHANCE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INVOF OF THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY. THE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION EXTRAPOLATES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY
LAYER FORCING WILL ALSO BE INCREASING. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY
NORTH AND HIGH CHANCE SOUTH. LATEST CRP STP INDICATES 1-3 INCHES
WITH POCKETS OF 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCENARIO...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME DUE TO
EXPECTED RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS. WILL BACK WINDS TO EAST ALL AREAS AND
INCREASE SPEEDS SOME MAINLY DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES.

MARINE...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY WESTWARD TO RIO BRAVO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH SLIGHT
NORTH TO SOUTH FLUCTUATIONS.  TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTING
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME IS MAINLY THE RESULT OF
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES..HOWEVER WILL MENTION HIGHER WINDS IN THE
UPDATE.  EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION..MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS..BEST
DEPICTED IN THE RUC/MESOETA ANALYSES..WILL INDUCE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT.  HOWEVER..DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR AS INTENSE AS EARLY TUE MORNING..AND CURRENT
CONVECTION OVER MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
IS ALREADY DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

85/76

.CRP...NONE.

TXZ229>234-239>247-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
704 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE IN PART TO A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK...YET IS EXPECTED TO STALL. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WC

TXZ229>234-239>247-231100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1039 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2002

...AN ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH TEXAS...

SOUTH TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH A STRONG JET STREAM AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL BEND...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH TEXAS LATER IN THE WEEK.  ADDITIONAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY MAY EXCEED 5 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS LIVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
UNFOLDING WEATHER SITUATION.  PEOPLE LIVING ALONG RIVERS...CREEKS
AND STREAMS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FALLS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE WATER RISES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

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