Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
305 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.  AIRMASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STABILIZED AFTER THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION...AND RECOVERY HAS BEEN SLOW...ONLY A FEW PUFFY CU
OUTSIDE.  EXPECT AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE AS WE GO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD ENTER THE
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT.  PWATS SHOULD AVERAGE 1.5 TO 1.75 IN
WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND 06Z AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
12Z.  THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY (LAGGING 3 TO 6 HOURS). AFTER THIS...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL DWINDLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEST ON TUESDAY...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A
RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...EXPECT THE FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NRN TX...TO MOVE SWD
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE WATERS EARLY SAT. CAPE-CIN PATTERN WL SUPPORT
CONVECTION ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS/DECREASING PCPN CHANGES EXPECTED AFTER FROPA.
EXPECT SFC WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE/VEER SUNDAY...AS THE ANTICYCLONE
MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE SERN CONUS. SGFNT MSTR INCREASE ANTICIPATED BY
WED...HWR NOT YET CONFIDENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN.

PRELIMS...
CRP EB 068/080 062/081 064 42-
VCT EB 063/077 057/079 058 52-
LRD EB 065/081 062/084 065 320

.CRP...SCA GMZ230-235.

78/87

TXZ229>234-239>247-181200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...COR HEADER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.  AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THESE STORMS.  AS WE GO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND LATE NIGHT
HOURS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND HAIL.  SOME CITIES TO BE AFFECTED ARE
LAREDO...COTULLA...VICTORIA...CORPUS CHRISTI...KINGSVILLE AND
SINTON.  MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 6 AM
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF
THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.

AFTER A FEW MORNING SHOWERS...MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL END.  WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON.

RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS FROM THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE VICTORIA
CROSS ROADS TO THE COASTAL BEND SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED
STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS SITUATION
DEVELOPS.

78

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI,TX
407 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0357 PM    VICTORIA                  TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/17/02   VICTORIA                       REPORTED BY AIRPORT
                                          MANAGER AT VICTORIA
                                          REGIONAL AIRPORT

0400 PM    4 SW INEZ                 TX   .75 INCH HAIL
05/17/02   VICTORIA

JM