Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 160025
FFSCRP
TXC311-160035-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
725 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MCMULLEN COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED...

AT 720 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED JUST  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MCMULLEN COUNTY. SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL 
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 
HOWEVER...HIGHWAY 16 SOUTH OF TILDEN AND FM 624 BETWEEN HIGHWAY 59 
AND COTULLA REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT OCCURRED LAST 
NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST FLOODING INFORMATION.

$$

85

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
225 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2002

WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU TUE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE RAPIDLY STREAMING UP FROM THE SRN GULF...AND A
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER MEX/W CWA...WITH A VORT MAX STRETCHED
ACROSS S AND CENT TX. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS OVER MEX SWINGING AROUND
BACK SIDE OF TROF AXIS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND AND UP
TWD THE CWA TONIGHT...AS WELL AS A VORT MAX MOVG N ALONG MEX COAST.
UPPER LEVEL STREAM LINE ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT...WITH CWA UNDER INFLUENCE OF RRQ OF JET. A SFC BDRY ALONG THE
COAST IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT AS A SEABREEZE...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED
BY AN APPROACHING BDRY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE RAPIDLY MOVG TWD THE
COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS TSRAS THRU TUE...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING ACROSS S TX.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF MAIN TROF AXIS BUT DIFFER IN
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF IMPULSES/VORT MAXS. WILL BE GOING MORE BY
SATELLITE FOR TIMING OF THE IMPULSES. ALTHOUGH AM EXPECTING HVY RAIN
ACROSS ALL OF CWA...MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE WEBB COUNTY
WITH A SLIGHTLY LESS CHANCE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING OVER THE E AND
N PORTIONS OF CWA. AM PLANNING ON GOING CATEGORICAL N AND E ZONES
WITH LIKELY WEBB CO FOR TONIGHT. ETA KEEPS MOISTURE/VORT MAX
AFFECTING THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF TUE WHILE AVN STARTS TO DRY US OUT
SOONER WITH A RIDGE BLDING IN FROM THE E. BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH
RIDGE IN CONTROL BY WED. SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
WARRANT KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WED.

WILL KEEP EXTENDED FCST DRY THRU NEXT SAT. AVN KEEPS PWATS AT OR
BELOW 1.5 INCHES WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED TO LOWEST LEVELS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A MAVERICK STORM WITH SEABREEZE...BUT WILL BE TOO
INSIGNIFICANT ATTM TO MENTION IN ZONES. BY SUN...MRF INDICATES A
TROP WAVE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SUN AND MON. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SUN/MON.

WINDS/TEMPS...ASIDE FROM BDRIES...OVERALL WIND FIELD WILL BE SE WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTENING ON TUES WITH AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO RAINFALL.

MARINE...PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAIN MOD
TO STRONG THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL ISSUE SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS TOMORROW AS LLJ IS MIXED DOWN. WILL
MAINTAIN NUM SH/TSRA AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH BY WED AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL KEEP DRY
FCST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK-MOD ONSHORE FLOW.

PRELIMS FOLLOW...
CRP TT 076/084 078/091 077 8732-
VCT TT 073/082 076/089 075 8843-
LRD TT 075/084 077/088 077 7643-

TE(81)...SYNOPTIC
JM(75)...MESO/MARINE

.CRP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TXZ229>234-239>247 THROUGH TUE.
       SCA GMZ250-255-270-275.