Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1015 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE OFF THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COAST THIS AM
AND MOVG STEADILY NWD.  MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN AROUND THE KCHS AREA AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AROUND
HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY.  A FEW GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
CONCERNS EASING FURTHER SWD.

WL ALSO MAKE CHANGES TO WINDS AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

MARINE...IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS SEAS A SOLID 8 FEET AT THIS
TIME WITH WINDS SOUTHEAST 20-25 KNOTS. FORECAST WINDS SEEM A TAD
HIGH BUT WITH CORE OF KYLE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS WILL LEAVE AS IS. IN THE HARBOR...WINDS AT 9 AM WERE ONLY
10-15 KNOTS. BELIEVE THIS IS ONLY A TEMPORARY LULL SO WILL LEAVE
FORECAST THERE ALONE AS WELL. AS FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS...WILL POST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS 5-7 FEET. WINDS ARE WEST AROUND 20
KNOTS SO WILL BRING FORECAST WINDS DOWN TO REFLECT THIS. VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF KYLE SO WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SAY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND REMOVE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN.

.CHS...
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ354-374.
SC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AMZ330-350-352 AND SCZ047>050.

SCW

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137-138-140-141-SCZ040-042>045-047>050-
111415-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
814 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
.TROPICAL WEATHER...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS...FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
TO NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HILTON HEAD AND BEAUFORT LATE THIS
MORNING. EFFECTS FROM KYLE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL...WITH THE
MAIN IMPACT HEAVY RAINS. 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON THE EXACT
TRACK OF KYLE...AS A SHIFT FURTHER EAST WOULD KEEP THE HEAVIER AND
STEADIER OVER THE ATLANTIC. WINDS FROM KYLE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 30 MPH...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
SQUALLS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

.SEVERE WEATHER...THERE IS A THREAT OF TORNADOES MAINLY OVER
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM EDISTO BEACH
TO LAKE MOULTRIE WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO TORNADO FORMATION.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

.MARINE WEATHER...ON THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 11 FEET AS KYLE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH.
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL KYLE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL MARINE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

.COASTAL FLOODING...THERE WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. TIDE LEVELS
WILL REACH NEAR 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES...OR AS HIGH AS AROUND
7.5 FEET IN CHARLESTON NEAR THE 1 PM HIGH TIDE. OTHER TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE INCLUDE...2:04 PM AT BEAUFORT AND 12:35 PM AT CAPE ROMAIN.
FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE GEORGIA COAST SHOULD BE MINIMAL...AS
WINDS HAVE ALREADY TURNED OFFSHORE. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF SEVERE WEATHER
OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCW

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>050-111630-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
630 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
AS TROPICAL STORM KYLE APPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...THERE
IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH
TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT NEAR OR MAKE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT.

THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO HAVE A TORNADO WOULD BE ROUGHLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM EDISTO BEACH TO LAKE MOULTRIE...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH CAROLINA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LOCAL WEATHER SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IN THE EVENT THAT WATCHES
OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WCHS.CSC.NOAA.GOV.

PM

NNNN

SCZ045-111500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1000 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY...

AT 1000 AM...CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE...EXTENDING NORTH
TO THE SANTEE DAM.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

MOVE INDOORS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING. DO NOT STAND BY
WINDOWS. UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY...AVOID USING TELEPHONES AND
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
CHARLESTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

PY