Special Marine Warning 68, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1248 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS WRN NEW YORK AS TRWS HAVE
FIRED UP ALONG THE LK ERIE BREEZE. CAPE VALUES ABV 3000 J/KG COMBINED
WITH RICH MOISTURE (PWS OF +2) WILL RESULT IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. VIL DE JOURS PREVIOUSLY FIGURED TO BE
IN THE MID 50S FOR SEVERE (3/4) HAIL.

MODELS (ETA/AVN) VARY SOMEWHAT IN THEIR HANDLING OF FROPA LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE ETA SHOWS TWO FRONTS COMING THROUGH. THE FIRST FRONT
IS TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z WITH WEAKENING OMEGA FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IT THEN BRINGS A SECONDARY FRONT...WITH THE TRUE
PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARND 12Z. THE AVN IS SIMPLER IN ITS
TAKE ON THE SITUATION BY BRINGING THROUGH ONE FRONT ARND 12Z.

IN EITHER CASE...EXPECT TWO ROUNDS OF TRWS WITHIN THE CWA. THE FIRST
ROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTAIN THE STRONGEST STORMS...
AND WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDAIRES. CAPES ABOVE
2000 J/KG THROUGH 00Z SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL AND RAIN
LOADED DOWNBURST WINDS A POSSIBILITY.

AS THE FRONT NEARS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THE SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP. MODELS AGAIN VARY ON LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE ETA BEING THE WEAKER OF THE 2.
TRW THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS (PWS ARND
2.25).

AS MENTIONED....THE TRUE COOLING WITH LOWER TDS WILL BE WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT. A NEW FEEL TO THE AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NOTICED
UNTIL MIDMORNING TUESDAY WHEN TDS WILL TUMBLE THROUGH 60S. BOTH
MODELS AGREE THAT TDS WILL BE IN UPPER 50S BY SUNSET TUESDAY
EVENING.

EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SUPPLY US WITH A BEAUTIFUL
STRETCH OF COMFORTABLE WX THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW TDS AND TEMPS
AVERAGING BLO SEASONAL NORMALS.

BUF...NONE.

RSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO, NY
425 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0358 PM    VICTOR                    NY   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/02   ONTARIO                        TREES/POWER LINES DOWN DUE
                                          TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0410 PM    PALMYRA                   NY   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/02   WAYNE                          TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
                                          DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT