Special Marine Warning 65, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WAS ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MRNG. PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE THE
ERLY MRNG PCPN IN THE ZONES AND PLAN ON AN UPDATE AROUND SUNRISE AS
THE PCPN CLEARS FROM THE WEST. ONCE THIS PCPN ENDS, EXPECT A HOT
HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE LOW 90S AND
DEWPTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO 70+ ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS.
INSTABILITY INCREASES TDA WITH CAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 2000 THIS AFTN.
LAKE BREEZES AND LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL
KICK OFF SOME SCT TSTMS AS THE AFTN WEARS ON. PCPN THREAT INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA TNGT WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. PWS APPROACH 2.0
OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS INCLUDED THE CWA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THRU 12Z.
WILL ISSUE AN SPS BUT INDICATE THE THREAT EXISTS WELL AFT MIDNIGHT
WITH APPROACHING FRONT. SOME LINGERING SHWRS POSSIBLE TUE MRNG THEN
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

BUF...NONE.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-222130-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
500 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

...ATTENTION EMERGENCY MANAGERS...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND
   AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...

SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER
OUR REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM ACROSS ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT NEARS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY BUT MAY BE NEEDED LATER
TONIGHT.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AND/OR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES CAN RELAY ANY
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS VIA NYSPIN OR TELEPHONE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LEVAN