Special Marine Warning 31, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
857 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2002

THE PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE GENESEE
VALLEY AT ABOUT 40 MPH. AT THIS RATE...THE CONVECTION WILL REACH OUR
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES BY 10 AM. THEREFORE...I WILL MAKE A
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER STARTING TIME ON THE PCPN.

.BUF...NONE.  (SPS FOR SVR WX POTENTIAL)

TJP

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-311600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
428 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2002

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK TODAY...

A COLD FRONT OVER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND
CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
OF THESE STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WHICH WOULD INCLUDE WIND
GUSTS OVER 58 MPH OR HAIL 3/4 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE IMMEDIATE
BUFFALO AREA AND ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE DUE TO THE COOLER
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE LAKE. IN ADDITION...THE SEVERE THREAT IS LESS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS ENOUGH CLEARING TO CREATE PREFRONTAL HEATING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER
INFORMATION FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. YOU CAN ALSO VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.WERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BUF.

MCLAUGHLIN