Special Marine Warning 49, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
233 AM CST TUE OCT 29 2002

.SHORT TERM...DWPTS IN THE 60S TRAPPED JUST NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT NOW EXTENDING FM JUST NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VLY TO NRN
KENEDY TO CRP AND N OVR NEARSHORE GULF WATERS TO GLS. SVR TSTMS
W/HVY RAFL NOW LOCATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...FM NRN KENEDY TO CRP
AND NE OVR NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. SMWCRP IN EFFECT FOR BAYS AND
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS AND ALL OFFSHORE AND
NEARSHORE WATERS TO 60 NM UNTIL 2 AM. SE FLOW...SE OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT...WITH NW FLOW NW OF THE FRONT CAUSING EXTREME LLVL
CONVERGENCE THIS AM. ONLY PATCHY SHRAS IN EXTREME NRN KENEDY FOR BRO
CWA. WEAK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW OVR RIO GRANDE VLY WITH AREAS OF FG AND
LOW CLOUDS. DWPTS 78 DEG F OVR VLY NOW...WITH 57 AT DRT/LRD. BRO AND
HRL REACHED 88 DEG F MON...WITH MFES HIGH AT 87. LITTLE RAFL IN RIO
GRANDE VLY MON...WITH HRL RECEIVING 0.01 INCH AND BRO A TRACE FM
MRNG SHRAS MON. XPCT SHRAS TO BE CONFINED TO HIDALGO/KENEDY COUNTIES
THIS MRNG...AS PVA AND H7 OMEGA MVS QUICKLY NE INIT THRU 6H.

ALL OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MVG THRU CENTRAL TX HAS TRANSLATED NE
TO NRN AR ATTM...WITH S/W ENERGY IN SRN STREAM CONFINED TO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEX INIT THRU THIS PM...ASSOCIATED WITH SVR
CONVECTION NOW TO OUR NE. SUM CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO KENEDY
COUNTY AND ADJ GULF WATERS. POS TILTED UPPER TROF OVR NRN CONUS
DRAWS UPPER JET AND S/W ENERGY NORTH TO THE MS AND THEN OH VLY WITH
TIME. COLD AIR CONFINED TO NRN CONUS UNTIL CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR
ROCKIES GET PICKED UP BY BROAD MEAN CENTERED OVR EASTERN ONTARIO AND
DRAGS COLD AIR SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL THU THRU SUN...AS CAA
BEGINS. LATEST MRF SHOWS A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR NOW...WITH A
SUN AM LOW 11 DEG F HIER THAN PREVIOUS RUN (NOW 57 IN BRO SUN
AM...WITH PREVIOUS PROG OF 46 DEG F THEN).

.MARINE...SEAS 4 FEET OFFSHORE WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE THE COASTAL BEND ENCROACHING ON
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THIS MORNING. HAVE ISSUED MWS
TO COVER CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN LAGUNA MADRE AND OFFSHORE FOR
NOW. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL TODAY AND BACK TO
THE EAST WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX. WIND
SHIFT EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE LOWER
TX COAST WED NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED
THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...
BRO EE 084/068 083/067 076 20/10/20/20/40
HRL EE 085/066 083/066 076 20/10/20/20/40
MFE EE 084/069 084/065 075 20/10/20/30/50
RGC EB 084/066 085/064 073 10/10/20/30/50
SPI EE 079/070 078/068 075 20/10/20/20/40

SYNOPTIC...PHILO (58) / AVIATION-MARINE-MESO...CASTILLO (61)

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...NONE.

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