Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO TEXT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
315 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2002

SHORT TERM...BRO 88D RADAR IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST ON THE PRECIPICE OF REACHING THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE HOUR RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES RAINFALL
RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF TWO TO
THREE INCHES OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST. THEREFORE...FFA WARRANTED
TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS WHERE RAINS
FROM YESTERDAY HAVE SATURATED DRY GROUNDS. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL
TREND WESTWARD OVER THE CWA TODAY WITH HIGHER POPS EAST INITIALLY
AND HIGHER WEST TONIGHT. COLD CLOUD TOPS ON IR SAT IMAGES INDICATE
CONVECTION OFFSHORE MEXICAN COAST PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AS RRQ OF
200MB JET STREAK OVER NORTHEAST TX AIDS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RUC 1000-500MB STREAM ANALYSIS
BRINGS TROPICAL MCS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NORTHWARD. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY CATEGORY POPS TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. 700MB RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD WEDNESDAY
BRINGING AN END TO THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT AS THE INVERTED 700MB
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX WEAKENS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD DIMINISH WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE CWA ABOVE 700MB.

EXTENDED...WILL CONTINUE DRYING TREND THURSDAY AS 500MB RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BUILDS WESTWARD OVER SOUTH TX. ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE PERIOD RELATIVELY
DRY WITH A FEW SEABREEZE SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF INTERACTS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION.

SYNOPTIC...CASTILLO.61
AVIATION-MARINE-MESO...PHILO.58

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
BRO TB 090/078 094/077 094 70/40/20/10/10
HRL TB 091/079 095/078 096 70/40/20/10/10
MFE TB 092/077 096/077 097 60/50/10/20/05
RGC TB 093/076 098/076 099 60/50/10/20/05
SPI TB 088/082 089/082 090 70/40/20/10/10

.BRO...FFA FOR TXZ248>257 UNTIL 00Z/SCA FOR GMZ150-155-170-175-.