Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Brownsville, TX

July 16, 2002Zapata County, Texas

NWS Brownsville, TX issued this flash flood warning at Jul 16, 2002, 6:30 AM CDT for Zapata County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 16, 2002, 6:30 AM CDT (11:30 UTC)
Expired: Jul 16, 2002, 9:30 AM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Brownsville, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Zapata County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1494 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -13 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 591 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 39 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 118 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 3.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KBRO 161130
FFWBRO
TXC505-161430-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
626 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  ZAPATA COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 625 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF   
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MOST OF ZAPATA COUNTY. 
  THIS AREA WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED 2 TO  
  4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN RECEIVED OVER A LARGE AREA OF ZAPATA 
  COUNTY. THIS RAINFALL IS IN ADDITION TO 2 TO 4 INCHES RECEIVED     
  YESTERDAY.

* SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE
  WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH
  FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH
  FLOODING INCLUDE...ZAPATA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND
ARROYOS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 2680 9942 2669 9907 2718 9900 2731 9947

PHILO

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 161219 CCA
FFSBRO
TXC505-161415-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
719 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2002

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR ZAPATA COUNTY UNTIL 930 AM...

AT 714 AM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN 
OVER MOST OF ZAPATA COUNTY.

RADAR INDICATES THAT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER 
ZAPATA COUNTY...JUST WEST OF ESCOBA. PEOPLE TRAVELING IN ZAPATA 
COUNTY SHOULD WATCH FOR FLOODED AREAS. THIS SAME AREA RECEIVED 
3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM STORMS YESTERDAY.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 2703 9938 2664 9912 2717 9900 2721 9938

PHILO

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 16, 3:15 AM CDT, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 3:15 AM CDT, 3 hours 15 minutes before

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO TEXT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
315 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2002

SHORT TERM...BRO 88D RADAR IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST ON THE PRECIPICE OF REACHING THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE HOUR RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES RAINFALL
RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF TWO TO
THREE INCHES OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST. THEREFORE...FFA WARRANTED
TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS WHERE RAINS
FROM YESTERDAY HAVE SATURATED DRY GROUNDS. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL
TREND WESTWARD OVER THE CWA TODAY WITH HIGHER POPS EAST INITIALLY
AND HIGHER WEST TONIGHT. COLD CLOUD TOPS ON IR SAT IMAGES INDICATE
CONVECTION OFFSHORE MEXICAN COAST PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AS RRQ OF
200MB JET STREAK OVER NORTHEAST TX AIDS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RUC 1000-500MB STREAM ANALYSIS
BRINGS TROPICAL MCS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NORTHWARD. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY CATEGORY POPS TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. 700MB RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD WEDNESDAY
BRINGING AN END TO THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT AS THE INVERTED 700MB
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX WEAKENS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD DIMINISH WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE CWA ABOVE 700MB.

EXTENDED...WILL CONTINUE DRYING TREND THURSDAY AS 500MB RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BUILDS WESTWARD OVER SOUTH TX. ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE PERIOD RELATIVELY
DRY WITH A FEW SEABREEZE SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF INTERACTS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION.

SYNOPTIC...CASTILLO.61
AVIATION-MARINE-MESO...PHILO.58

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
BRO TB 090/078 094/077 094 70/40/20/10/10
HRL TB 091/079 095/078 096 70/40/20/10/10
MFE TB 092/077 096/077 097 60/50/10/20/05
RGC TB 093/076 098/076 099 60/50/10/20/05
SPI TB 088/082 089/082 090 70/40/20/10/10

.BRO...FFA FOR TXZ248>257 UNTIL 00Z/SCA FOR GMZ150-155-170-175-.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Brownsville, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 16, 3:33 AM CDT	Special Marine Warning	BRO		57 min
Jul 16, 3:33 AM CDT	Special Marine Warning	BRO		57 min
Jul 16, 4:24 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	BRO	Jim Hogg	3 hr
Jul 16, 9:29 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	BRO	Zapata	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2002 Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.