Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2002

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 727 HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAIN UNSTABLE AND EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUITE HAD A GOOD DESCRIPTION OF THE OVER
DEVELOPING WEATHER SCENARIO...AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FINE AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER.

THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IS
RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY
BLEND WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS DIFFLUENT...AND FAVORABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES EJECT FROM THE
MAIN VORT CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...24/12Z KBRO SOUNDING AT
2.10 INCHES OF PW...AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX...A FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE FROM T.S. KENNA CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
TOWARD DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND LEFTOVER MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH
60 PERCENT POP SATURDAY...AND GRADUALLY DECREASE CHANCES AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS AND THE WIND PROFILE BECOMES DRIER AND COOLER.

ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY...AND ARRIVE IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS
SOLUTION AND MENTION BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR HALLOWEEN.

BIT OF TRIVIA...DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME ENDS THIS SUNDAY MORNING AT 2
AM...SO CLOCKS SHOULD BE SET BACK ONE HOUR...RETURNING TO STANDARD
TIME.

MARINE DISCUSSION...AT 1 PM BUOY REPORTED SE WINDS AT 14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 17 KTS AND SEAS 4 FT AT 5 SEC. AT 2 PM BUOY002 REPORTED SE
WINDS AT 16 KT WITH GUSTS TO 19 KT AND SEAS 3 FT AT 6 SEC. MCS
TRAVERSING S CNTRL TX HAS HALTED ITS SE MOVMT...AND IS HEADED ENE
EARLY THIS AFTN AS COASTAL TROUGH DRIFTED N. WILL BACK OFF TO ISOLD
SHRA TONIGHT...BECMG SCT LATE AS AVN HAS VORT MAX CROSSING UPPER
COASTAL WATERS BTWN 06Z AND SUNRISE FRI...AS COLD FRONT CROSSES N
TX. CONCURRENTLY...SFC LOW OVER W TX SLIDES DOWN THE RIO GRANDE TO
THE COAST...INCRG SPG OVER COASTAL WATERS BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/SEAS
WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FRI NIGHT...AS SFC RIDGE OVER NE
GULF IS ONLY 1015MB. BY SAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BEHIND LOW OVER S TX COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS AT SCEC
LEVEL. FRONT CLEARS COASTAL AREA BY MIDNIGHT SAT...SO WILL SCALE
BACK TO SCT TSRA AND ISOLD FOR SUN. LATE SUN...SFC CENTER CROSSES
THE MISSISSIPPI...RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AS SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER W TX. NEXT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES SRN PLAINS EARLY TUE...INCRG CHC TRSA OVER COASTAL WATERS
AND BRINGING WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE TO COASTAL WATERS BY LATE TUE WITH
NO SIG INCR IN WINDS AND SEAS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...

BRO TW 076/084 074/083 072 40/50/50/60/50
HRL TW 074/084 073/083 070 40/50/50/60/60
MFE TW 074/083 074/084 073 50/60/70/70/60
RGC TW 073/082 072/082 070 50/60/70/70/60
SPI WW 076/084 075/084 075 30/40/50/50/40

SYNOPTIC...VANSPEYBROECK
AVIATION/MESO/MARINE...SIERRA

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...FFA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...TXZ248>252.

TXZ248>257-251100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
415 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
CONCENTRATED OVER BROOKS...KENEDY...JIM HOGG...STARR AND ZAPATA
COUNTIES...WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE COUNTIES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS HAZARDOUS
WEATHER SITUATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED BY
THIS OFFICE AT 356 PM CDT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...NUISANCE FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER ZAPATA...STARR...JIM
HOGG...BROOKS...AND KENEDY COUNTIES DUE TO POSSIBLE FLOODING.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ASKED TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY...WHILE
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECENTLY AFFECTED
BY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.

TXZ248>257-242100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
130 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2002

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR STARR...ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS AND
KENEDY COUNTIES IS LIKELY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES OF JIM HOGG...BROOKS AND KENEDY THIS
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND IS GENERATING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL BEND AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. AT 130 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE DETECTED NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AREA TOWARDS THE CORPUS
CHRISTI AREA.

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF
BROOKS...JIM HOGG AND KENEDY COUNTIES...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVER STARR...ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS AND
KENEDY COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  THIS REDEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND THE LATEST OFFICIAL WEATHER
FORECASTS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR BROWNSVILLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO OR LISTEN TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

SPEECE