Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
310 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2002

TONIGHT THRU FRI...CONVECTION OVER NW GULF ASSOC WITH H5 SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVG EAST. EARLY THIS AFTN...IR/WV SAT IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED OVER NW MEX BY UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
LOCATED OVER CHIHUAHUA. THIS WAVE...NOW TAPPING TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND TRIGGERING TSRA OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS S TX OVER NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE SLGT CHC POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND WED...AND ADD 10 PERCENT FOR WED NIGHT OUT WEST. DPSOTEX
REMAINS UNDER SW FLOW AT H5 DUE TO TROUGHING OVER BAJA WITH ETA
PROGGING 110 KT JET MAX CROSSING N MEX AND NOSING INTO CNTRL TX BY
THU 12Z...SO WILL ADD 10 PERCENT POPS INLAND FOR THU AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN AVN AND ETA. AVN KEEPS CWA DRY...LIKELY DUE TO STRONGER SFC
WINDS FROM DEEPER LOW OVER NRN MEX CREATING TIGHTER SPG OVER
DPSOTEX. BY EARLY FRI...AVN AND MRF HAVE COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL TX
WITH NE WINDS OVER JUST N OF CWA BY FRI EVENING...AS FRONT STALLS.

SAT THRU TUE...EARLY IN PERIOD...SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT N MEX ACRS
DPSOTEX IN DOWNSTREAM FLOW ASSOC W/H5 LOW OVER SOCAL. THIS SHORT
WAVE KICKS OUT SFC LOW FROM NE MEX ACRS CWA...SHIFTING SFC WINDS TO
NW LATE SAT. ON SUN...SOCAL LOW MOVES E ACRS NW MEX AND OPENS AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN PLAINS AND COMES INTO PHASE WITH SHORT WAVE OVER NRN
PLAINS. RESULTANT H5 LONG WAVE PULLS WEAK COLD FRONT THRU DPSOTEX ON
MON WITH N WINDS INCRG MON NIGHT. TUE LOOKS CLEAR AND COOL.

.MARINE...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ZIP
BY TO THE NORTH AS A SURFACE FRONT WORKS INTO TEXAS DURING THE
MIDWEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING VELOCITIES TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO INCREASE THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...
BRO BB 073/088 074/089 075 10/10/00/00/00
HRL BB 073/089 074/090 075 10/10/00/00/00
MFE BB 072/091 073/092 074 10/10/10/10/00
RGC BB 071/091 071/092 073 10/10/10/10/00
SPI BB 074/086 075/087 076 10/10/00/00/00

PUBLIC...59
AVIATION/MESO/MARINE...57

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...NONE.

TXZ248>257-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
608 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER MUCH
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINING COUNTIES. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...
REDUCING VISIBILITY AND PRODUCING PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...WHILE TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECENTLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.

TXZ251-222100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
324 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2002

...BRIEF TORNADO SPOTTED OVER CENTRAL KENEDY COUNTY...

A WEATHER SPOTTER TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 77 REPORTED A
TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT 3:04 PM CDT...APPROXIMATELY 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SARITA BORDER PATROL CHECKPOINT. THE TORNADO TOUCH
DOWN IN OPEN RANGE LAND.

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED THIS TORNADO IS DISSIPATING...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL DEVELOPING NEAR A WEAK SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS.

MOTORIST ARE URGED TO USED EXTRA CAUTION ALONG HIGHWAY 77...THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU SPOT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE AT 1-800-303-3822. SPOTTER
REPORTS CAN BE GIVEN TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TELL THE AGENTS AT
THE BORDER PATROL CHECK POINT AND THEY WILL RELAY THE INFORMATION TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

VANSPEYBROECK