Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
257 PM MDT MON AUG 5 2002

TONIGHT:  SATELLITE AND RADAR PICTURES ARE INDICATING A PRONOUNCED
BOUNDARY FROM AROUND THE DENVER AREA EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY.  THE BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
SCATTERED POPS WILL SUFFICE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND WILL
MENTION SOME HEAVY RAIN.  FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA
...ISOLATED POPS LOOK GOOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:  MODELS KEEP PERSISTENCE GOING THROUGH
THURSDAY.  PLENTY OF MIDDLE AND UPPER UPPER MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES ALSO SHOW A DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE TO
COME FOR A COUPLE DAYS ANYWAY.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WITH AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF SOME SORTS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.  GRIDS SHOW
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ARE SOMEWHAT DRIER
FOR MOST OF THE TIME.  GRIDS SHOW SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
AROUND AND DECENT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...THE THE STABLE
LAPSE RATES ALSO CONTINUE BETWEEN 500-400 MB.  WELL GO WITH
SCATTEREDS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LESS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENT AS WELL.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:  ON FRIDAY...THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUING SHOWING A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY.  THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
BY SATURDAY AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DISAPPEARS.  WILL KEEP THE DRY GOING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  COULD THE PONTOON BE OVER?     RJK

.DEN...NONE.