Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
257 PM MDT MON AUG 5 2002

TONIGHT:  SATELLITE AND RADAR PICTURES ARE INDICATING A PRONOUNCED
BOUNDARY FROM AROUND THE DENVER AREA EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY.  THE BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
SCATTERED POPS WILL SUFFICE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND WILL
MENTION SOME HEAVY RAIN.  FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA
...ISOLATED POPS LOOK GOOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:  MODELS KEEP PERSISTENCE GOING THROUGH
THURSDAY.  PLENTY OF MIDDLE AND UPPER UPPER MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES ALSO SHOW A DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE TO
COME FOR A COUPLE DAYS ANYWAY.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WITH AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF SOME SORTS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.  GRIDS SHOW
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ARE SOMEWHAT DRIER
FOR MOST OF THE TIME.  GRIDS SHOW SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
AROUND AND DECENT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...THE THE STABLE
LAPSE RATES ALSO CONTINUE BETWEEN 500-400 MB.  WELL GO WITH
SCATTEREDS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LESS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENT AS WELL.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:  ON FRIDAY...THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUING SHOWING A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY.  THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
BY SATURDAY AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DISAPPEARS.  WILL KEEP THE DRY GOING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  COULD THE PONTOON BE OVER?     RJK

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-052000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1030 AM MDT MON AUG 5 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH
A GENERAL SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO.
THERE IS SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL REDUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO.
MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL BEGIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE NOON HOUR...AND
SPREAD OUT OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM...AND LATER
ON FURTHER EAST.

STEERING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOME MOVEMENT OF STORMS
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH...WITH TRAINING OF ECHOES OVER THE SAME AREAS A
POSSIBILITY.  AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT TODAY WITH THE MAIN FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE BURN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER HAYMAN BURN AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.
RAINFALL RATES WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT RAINFALL REPORTS WILL BE
APPRECIATED.

OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY: SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ENTREKIN