Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
1209 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2002

WARM/STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR KGTR TO NEAR KMGM AT MID DAY.
BOTH RUC AND MESO ETA START THE FRONT MOVING NORTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SHOWS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN
CONVECTION STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. NORTH OF BOUNDARY...
HIGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXIST...WITH STRONG STORMS EXITING EAST OF
AREA AND MORE UPSTREAM. SOUTH OF BOUNDARY...ATMOSPHERE BECOMING
UNSTABLE BUT STILL CAPPED. AS MORE INSOLATION OCCURS...SCATTERED
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG BOUNDARY. SPC HAS UPPED
ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA TO MODERATE WITH SOUTH IN SLIGHT RISK. MAIN
THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH SOME ROTATING
STORMS. WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR SEVERE WORDING INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN HELD SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO CLOUD COVER...BUT BIG
DIFFERENCE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.  75

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>050-301917-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1217 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2002

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...MODERATE RISK NORTH AND SLIGHT RISK SOUTH...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT REFORM...TO
COLUMBIANA...TO ROANOKE.  THIS INCLUDES THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
ALABAMA.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO THE SOUTH...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH ALABAMA.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF TUSCALOOSA TO MONTGOMERY TO
EUFAULA.  SUPERCELLS WILL FORM NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SUPERCELLS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BECOME TORNADIC AT TIMES.

THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...AND
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM THERE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE AT TIMES.

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.