Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
300 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2002

UPPER FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
FLAT RIDGE ANCHORED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF
FLAT RIDGE. SURFACE FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MGM TO JUST SOUTH OF
GTR THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS HAVE MOVED WNW TO ESE
ACROSS THE CWFA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MAINLY HAIL
REPORTS TODAY WITH SOME AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS. SEVERE WATCH MOST
AREAS UNTIL 8 PM...BUT WILL MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE ALL AREAS...
WITH MAINLY EVENING MENTIONED SOUTH. NOT MUCH TIME FOR MODEL
DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW SHORT WAVES RIDING CLOSE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOMORROW
DEVELOPS A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT MOST ACTIVE WEATHER
SHOULD BE NORTH OF CWA. BIG QUESTION WILL BE EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT ENDS UP. WED WILL KEEP CHC POPS N AL AND VERY LOW S AL AS
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE CAPPED. FRONT RETURNS AGAIN LATE THURSDAY WITH
SHWRS/TSTMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. FRONT STALLS OUT AGAIN ACROSS FAR
SOUTH AL FRI AND AS HIGH PUSHES EASTWARD SAT/SUN...AREA WILL AGAIN
SEE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHC POPS.  GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN
SOMEWHAT OF AGREEMENT AND WILL STAY CLOSE.  75

HSV ET 067/084 067/082 055 75823554
BHM BE 067/085 068/085 058 75811444
MGM BB 067/089 068/091 065 754-0224

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>050-301917-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1217 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2002

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...MODERATE RISK NORTH AND SLIGHT RISK SOUTH...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT REFORM...TO
COLUMBIANA...TO ROANOKE.  THIS INCLUDES THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
ALABAMA.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO THE SOUTH...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH ALABAMA.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF TUSCALOOSA TO MONTGOMERY TO
EUFAULA.  SUPERCELLS WILL FORM NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SUPERCELLS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BECOME TORNADIC AT TIMES.

THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...AND
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM THERE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE AT TIMES.

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.