Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 03 2002

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
EVOLUTION. STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF CWFA
WITH WEAKNESS/TROUGH HANGING AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
COAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND TRAVERSE THE AREA ON DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. BOTH
ETA AND AVN CONTINUE WITH SOME KIND OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL AREA...AND BRINGING THE AXIS
NORTHWARD. MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH POSITIONING AND THEREFORE MOISTURE
FIELDS/QPF. AVN WOULD GIVE US MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES THAN ETA AS
AVN HOLDS LOW NEAR SW AL. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE...GIVING WAY TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION...WHICH BASICALLY TRANSLATES TO LOWERING
POPS A TAD ACROSS N HALF MON.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED IN SW AL HAS HELPED INITIATE TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY HAS QUICKLY ERUPTED IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND WILL PROPAGATE GENERALLY WESTWARD. WILL
MONITOR ACTIVITY FOR POPS 1ST PERIOD. AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES DRYING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND
WEAK COLD POOL MOVING DOWN THE NW SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS VA/WV AND WILL MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR
TSTMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING N AL LATER THIS EVENING.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE
WEEK AND ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA. EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES
WEAKENING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE TUE/WED WITH COOLER/MORE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
HSV BB 071/094 071/094 071/092 75111212
BHM BB 072/093 072/091 071/091 75111323
MGM BB 072/092 072/090 071/091 75111535=

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>050-031900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
101 PM CDT SAT AUG 03 2002

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ALTHOUGH AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA...THE AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THAT WHERE THESE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE SOME DAMAGE.  IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL FACTOR:
HUNTSVILLE...5
BIRMINGHAM...5
MONTGOMERY...5