Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
1130 AM CDT SAT AUG 03 2002

TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS TEMPS SCHEMES AND YESTERDAYS
HIGHS...LOOKS LIKE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL AT LEAST MEET
PERSISTENCE AND MAY GO A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER. SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO EAST AL THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MIXING AIR
TO DROP DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY AT THE SURFACE. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
HAS TEMPS IN LINE AND ONLY ADJUSTMENT MAY BE TO ADD RANGE. HEAT
INDICES AT MAXIMUM CONDITIONS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 100S AND WILL
NOT MENTION ATTM. PRECIP WATER VALUES STARTING OFF AT 12Z JUST OVER
1.5 WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 1.5 THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
BELIEVE COVERAGE IF ANY WILL BE VERY SMALL AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SHORT TERM MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING...BUT ONCE AGAIN DO NOT SEE BIG
COVERAGE IF ANY.   75

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>050-031900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
101 PM CDT SAT AUG 03 2002

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ALTHOUGH AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA...THE AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THAT WHERE THESE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE SOME DAMAGE.  IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL FACTOR:
HUNTSVILLE...5
BIRMINGHAM...5
MONTGOMERY...5