Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
925 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2002

UPDATE ONLY TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING FOG FROM FORECAST. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

JML

...PREVIOUS DISC BELOW...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING INTO NY AND PA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  YET, MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS ARE THIN AND SHOULD ALLOW A
GOOD DEAL OF HAZY SUN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY.  WELL ALSO
RETAIN A MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG AS LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE BEARING THIS OUT IN MANY PLACES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
STRONG LATE JUNE SUN AND RESIDING AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

OUR THINKING HASNT CHANGED MUCH REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
PICTURES DISPLAY A SHORT WAVE COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO AS OF THIS WRITING.  THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.  AT
THE SAME TIME, THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
LATER TODAY WITH EXPECTED CAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG.
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE SOME BY LATE IN THE DAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 35 TO 40 KNOT WIND MAXIMUM OVER NY AND PA NEAR THE
700 MILLIBAR LEVEL.  SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD FORM IN THIS
TYPE OF REGIME AND THUS WELL THROW IN THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.  LATER THIS EVENING, THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN
A BIT AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN AT LEAST SOME
STABILIZATION.  HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LURKING TO OUR
WEST AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE, HIT AND MISS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THURSDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.  THINGS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN WITH
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE AND GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS OWING
TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.  WELL MAINTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BLEED INTO THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING.  ON FRIDAY, WE KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN-FREE FOR
NOW AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS ALSO SEEN COMING AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY SURFACE BOUNDARY AS WELL.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THIS MORE CLOSELY.

WORK ZONES ARE ON THE STREET.  THE FINAL PACKAGE WILL BE SHIPPED OUT
BETWEEN 3:30 AND 3:45.

.BGM...NONE.

JUREWICZ

NYZ022-261800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
108 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2002

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF STEUBEN COUNTY...

AT 108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL NEAR
WELLSVILLE....OR ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF HARTSVILLE....MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HARTSVILLE AND WEST GREENWOOD AT 130 PM.
NORTH HORNELL AND HORNELL AT 145 PM.
AVOCA AND COHOCTON AT 200 PM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU CAN
ALSO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/BGM.