Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
910 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2002

SCT TSRA CONTINUE TO RUMBLE ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA. ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A WEAK BNDRY WHICH NOW STRETCHES E-W NEAR THE
NY/PA BORDER. XPCT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BUT MAY HAVE TO
XTND THE CHCS TIL ARND MDNGT FOR NE PA. LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY ON
TAP FOR TMRW WITH POTNL FOR STRONG STORMS.
--------------------------------------------------------------

THE HOT AND HUMID AIR HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FA AS DEW POINT
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. SHRA HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL THROW IN THE MENTION OF EARLY
EVE SHRA/TSRA IN ALL ZONE GROUPINGS BUT KEEP THE CHCS LOW. WITH THE
HIGH DEW POINTS AND SOME SPOTS RECEIVING RAIN WILL ALSO MENTION
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

AFTER THE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...WED WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID
DAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION THAN TODAY
WITH A SFC TROUGH IN THE AREA AND MORE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS.
MODELS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN (CAPES AROUND
2500). WITH HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE FA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE MODELS KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING WED
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST. COLD FRONT AND MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH APPROACH THE FA
THURSDAY. WITH THE INSTABILITY PERSISTING SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE
LIKELY AGAIN.

USED A COMPROMISE IN THE GUIDANCE TEMPS WHERE DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED.

.BGM...NONE.

SMF/RHB

NYZ045-056-057-062-PAZ039-040-260215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
812 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2002

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MOVING
INTO THE AREA...

AT 804 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM SIDNEY TO NEW
MILFORD... MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SUSQUEHANNA AT 820 PM.
SIDNEY CENTER AND LAKEVIEW AT 830 PM.
WINTERDALE AND STARUCCA AT 845 PM.
HANCOCK AT 855 PM.
WALTON... THOMPSON AND HIAWATHA AT 900 PM.
STARLIGHT AND SHEHAWKEN AT 915 PM.
HAMDEN AND LAKEWOOD AT 930 PM.
EQUINUNK AT 950 PM.
LIVINGSTON MANOR AND CALLICOON AT 1015 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL UP TO HALF AN INCH... GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MILES AN HOUR... AND HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH.
EXPECT FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE... SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A
STRONG BUILDING. GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... VERY HEAVY RAIN... AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. STAY
INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU CAN
ALSO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/BGM.

TAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY
1028 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0450 PM    DELHI                     NY   WIND DAMAGE
06/25/02   DELAWARE                       TREE DOWN REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0750 PM    FENTON                    NY   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/25/02   BROOME                         REPORTED BY
STORM SPOTTER