Special Marine Warning 71, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1005 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2002

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN IN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT PER MAPS SURFACE LI ANALYSIS/0Z GRB SOUNDING...WITH
SURFACE LI/CAPE ANALYSIS AND 0Z APX SOUNDING SUGGESTING A SHARP
STABILITY GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. ALSO...SW WISCONSIN PROFILER
DATA DEPICTS STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS...35 KNOTS COMPARED TO ONLY
20 KNOTS AT 500 MB. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT MCS WILL REDEVELOP
TOWARD THE W/SW...WITH FORWARD ELEMENTS TURNING SE AND WEAKENING
WITH TIME. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF ONGOING CONVECTION...EVEN
WITH A WEAKENING TREND THERE COULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL ACROSS
SW COUNTIES OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS MCS PUSHES ONSHORE. THUS...
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS SW COUNTIES OF LOWER MI...WEST OF HTL.

MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM JUSTIFIES CONTINUED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UP AND ACROSS N/NW COUNTIES OF NW LOWER MI
OVERNIGHT. WITH MCS EXPECTED TO TURN SE/WEAKEN...AND WITH FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE N/NW...DID NOT ADD POPS FROM APN
THROUGH HTL AND POINTS S/E...BUT ADDED MENTION OF CLOUDS.

GIVEN CLOUD COVER...RAISED TEMPS A BIT IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.

.APX...NONE.

ROWLEY

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MIZ008-015>036-041-042-311200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
950 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2002

...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...

* THREAT AREA....EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
  MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM LELAND...
  TO GAYLORD...TO HOUGHTON LAKE.

* DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

* HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WIND
  GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

* TIME OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* FOR INFORMATION REGARDING ONGOING...POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
  CONDITIONS PLEASE REFER TO WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

IF LATER INFORMATION FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER
THREAT...APPROPRIATE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

ROWLEY