Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Gaylord, MI

Issued

Jul 30, 2002, 11:17 PM EDT (03:17 UTC)

Expired

Jul 30, 2002, 11:45 PM EDT

In force

28 min

Issued by

NWS Gaylord, MI

Area

Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Benzie County, MI, Manistee County, MI

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

270 
WUUS53 KAPX 310317
SVRAPN
MIC019-101-310345-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1116 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  BENZIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
  MANISTEE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 1111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRANKFORT   
  TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANISTEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH...
  WELDWOOD...ONEKAMA...BEULAH...BENZONIA AROUND 1125 PM EDT
  HONOR...NORWALK...BEAR LAKE AROUND 1130 PM EDT
  BENDON...THOMPSONVILLE...KALEVA AROUND 1140 PM EDT

REMAIN INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 80 MPH. WINDS
THIS HIGH CAN DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

LAT...LON 4417 8607 4427 8632 4456 8622 4470 8626
          4474 8607 4463 8582 4417 8583

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 30, 10:05 PM EDT, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1005 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2002

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN IN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT PER MAPS SURFACE LI ANALYSIS/0Z GRB SOUNDING...WITH
SURFACE LI/CAPE ANALYSIS AND 0Z APX SOUNDING SUGGESTING A SHARP
STABILITY GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. ALSO...SW WISCONSIN PROFILER
DATA DEPICTS STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS...35 KNOTS COMPARED TO ONLY
20 KNOTS AT 500 MB. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT MCS WILL REDEVELOP
TOWARD THE W/SW...WITH FORWARD ELEMENTS TURNING SE AND WEAKENING
WITH TIME. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF ONGOING CONVECTION...EVEN
WITH A WEAKENING TREND THERE COULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL ACROSS
SW COUNTIES OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS MCS PUSHES ONSHORE. THUS...
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS SW COUNTIES OF LOWER MI...WEST OF HTL.

MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM JUSTIFIES CONTINUED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UP AND ACROSS N/NW COUNTIES OF NW LOWER MI
OVERNIGHT. WITH MCS EXPECTED TO TURN SE/WEAKEN...AND WITH FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE N/NW...DID NOT ADD POPS FROM APN
THROUGH HTL AND POINTS S/E...BUT ADDED MENTION OF CLOUDS.

GIVEN CLOUD COVER...RAISED TEMPS A BIT IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.

.APX...NONE.

ROWLEY

In the hours before

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-311200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
950 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2002

...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...

* THREAT AREA....EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
  MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM LELAND...
  TO GAYLORD...TO HOUGHTON LAKE.

* DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

* HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WIND
  GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

* TIME OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* FOR INFORMATION REGARDING ONGOING...POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
  CONDITIONS PLEASE REFER TO WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

IF LATER INFORMATION FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER
THREAT...APPROPRIATE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

ROWLEY

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.