Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2002

LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER CNTRL ZNS
AS A NEW SFC LOW GETS BETTER ORGANIZED BETWEEN KROW AND KCVS AS
HINTED BY ETA MODEL. THIS SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE
MODELS TO TRACK NEWD THRU FCST AREA TNGT AND FRI...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY RETREATING NWD TO NRN ZNS IN ACCORDANCE WITH 12Z
ETA/AVN/NGM...THEN MOVG SWD AGAIN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...OUT OF
THE PNHDLS BY 12Z SAT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS NERN HALF
TNGT...SLGT CHC ALL ZNS FRI...CHC POPS FRI NIGHT THRU THE MEMORIAL
WEEKEND. UA PATTERN FEATURES BROAD WSW FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES ZIPPING ACROSS ON OCCASION. COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...
WEAK IMPULSES AND PROXIMITY OF SFC BOUNDARIES WARRANTS THE CHC POPS
THRU WEEKEND...AGAIN FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CLIMATOLOGY OF LATE MAY HERE
ON SRN HI PLAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON BROAD WSW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO TUE BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE AND RIDGING
OCCURS OVER WRN US. DEPENDING ON RIDGE AXIS...COULD SEE SOME SORT OF
NW FLOW OVER PNHDLS WED AND THU WHICH ALWAYS RAISES A CONCERN OF NW
FLOW WX EVENTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS FOR WED AND ADD THU IN AS
WELL DUE TO THAT PSBLTY BASED ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL AGREEMENT...EXCEPTION BEING THE ECMWF WHICH HOLDS ON TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS A BIT LONGER.

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ANDRADE

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-232300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
115 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDS NORTH AND EAST OF A
TEXLINE TO DALHART TO AMARILLO TO CHILDRESS LINE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...TO NEAR BORGER...TO DALHART. A DRY LINE EXTENDS
FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN OKLAHOMA...TO NEAR AMARILLO...THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE DRY
LINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY...OR SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DUE TO WIND SHEAR AND
TURNING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS OR SKYWARN SPOTTERS
WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM TOMORROW
MORNING.

FOX