Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
350 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2002

DISCUSSION WILL BE RATHER SHORT. CONVECTION FIRING ALONG WEAK
CONVERGENCE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL CWA.  THIS AREA A BIT DISPLACED FROM
MAIN MID LEVEL DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE MORE THAN PLENTIFUL.  WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS LINE MOVE SLOWLY ENE ACROSS EASTERN CWA THIS
EVENING.  MID LEVEL WINDS AND CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE SLOW
PROPOGATION OF MCS.  THUS SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS MOST OF THE CWA STILL HAS RELATIVELY HIGH FFG AND
THEREFORE EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE HANDLED OKAY WITH
ONLY LOCALIZED PROBLEMS.  ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS COULD LIKELY CLIP
WESTERN OR NORTHWEST CWA AS STRONG S/W HEADS NORTHEAST INTO NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE FRONT EDGES TOWARD MN BORDER BY
AFERNOON AND IT APPEARS MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY WILL BE EAST
OF THE REGION.  FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  EXPECT AT LEAST INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY.  NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM STILL BEING ADVERTISED AND PROBABLY
WILL SEE SOME EFFECT OF THIS SYSTEM BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
ALMOST FALL LIKE PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS.

TDK

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE OF EXT WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIP ON MON. AVN EXT
CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVG THRU AREA ON SUN INTO MON.
FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE PASSED THROUGH AREA BY MON SO WILL JUST HAVE
THREAT OF PRECIP DUE TO H5 TROUGH MOVG OVER NRN PLAINS. AS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP...BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE SUN OVERNIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL MON AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXT...WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH THE AREA REACHING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BY
MIDWEEK. ON WED AVN EXT SHOWS WEAK S/W SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA...WHICH COULD AFFECT REGION WED INTO THU...BUT WILL LEAVE
FCST DRY FOR NOW.

ALBRECHT

.ABR...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN, SD
324 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    2 NW STEPHAN              SD   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/08/02   HYDE

GEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN, SD
408 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0349 PM    13 NE FORT THOMPSON       SD   60 MPH WIND GUST
08/08/02   BUFFALO

0350 PM    MILLER                    SD   .88 INCH HAIL
08/08/02   HAND

MJA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN, SD
442 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0407 PM    8 NE SAINT LAWRENCE       SD   60 MPH WIND GUST
08/08/02   HAND

0410 PM    SHELBY                    SD   60 MPH WIND GUST
08/08/02   BUFFALO

0410 AM    SHELBY                    SD   .75 INCH HAIL
08/08/02   BUFFALO

SK