Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
426 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2002

NOT MUCH THUNDER LEFT IN THE WEST RIGHT NOW AS LINE OF STORMS COOLED
OFF LOWER LEVELS AND STABILIZED THINGS. MORE STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN THE WEST DUE TO SHORTWAVE/CIRCULATION OVHD. RAIN SKIPPED OVER
MOST OF ABQ. THUNDERSTORMS DIED OFF AS THEY COMING DOWNHILL INTO ABQ
THEN REGENERATED ON THE OTHER SIDE OF SANDIA/MANZANOS. ALL OF
EASTERN PLAINS SUBJECT TO TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT.

AVN AND ETA ALREADY FICTION AS THEY TO HAVE UPPER LOW TOO FAR SW AT
00Z. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT UPPER LOW(S) WILL WANDER AROUND CWA THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING TO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCT TSTM ACTIVITY AROUND CWA. STARTING OVER MTNS
LATE MORNING...WORKING INTO VALLEYS AND PLAINS MID AFTN AND EVENING.

TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE SUNDAY AS A HUGE RIDGE IS PROGGED
TO BE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO PUSH COPIUS LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO FOR SUNDAY. BOTH AVN AND MY
EXPERIENCE FROM LAST SUMMER SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO WARM ALOFT FOR
MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO WOBBLE AROUND AFTER
SUNDAY. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT IT WILL STILL BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF STABILITY IN THE PATTERN IM
NOT GOING TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST. JWS

ABQ BB 063/088 064/088 068 46433
SAF TB 059/085 059/085 068 46454
TCC BB 061/084 063/081 066 46525

.ABQ...NONE.

NMZ001>021-026-042300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1100 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2002

NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS OF UP TO 65
MPH COULD OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN CHAVES AND DE BACA COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INTENSE DOWNPOURS MAY BRING
FLOODING TO ARROYOS...CITY STREETS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS OVER
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. PLEASE DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODWATERS BY FOOT OR
VEHICLE.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN STILL PRODUCE
MAJOR FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT SUFFERED LARGE WILDFIRES IN YEAR
2000 OR YEAR 2001. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT...
IN LINCOLN COUNTY...MODERATE.
IN LOS ALAMOS COUNTY...MODERATE.
IN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...MODERATE.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MADE THE
ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE WESTCENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. THE INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE FOR THE
POSSIBLITY OF LARGE HAIL IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS UP TO 65 MPH IN WEST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY.

COUNTIES IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE
HELPFUL...
CHAVES... DE BACA.

COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE
HELPFUL...
BERNALILLO... SOCORRO... VALENCIA... SANDOVAL... RIO ARRIBA...
LOS ALAMOS... TAOS... SANTA FE... TORRANCE... LINCOLN.

COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE
HELPFUL...
CATRON... CIBOLA... MCKINLEY... SAN JUAN.

THIS OUTLOOK PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL
HAZARDOUS OR LIFE THREATENING WEATHER. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE
SPECIFIC STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS RELATED TO FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KMAF.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KEPZ.